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☆ Analysis-China's stubborn savers risk precipitating liquidity trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Winni Zhou | Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

“Based on Japan’s experience in the 1990s, there is the risk that China is entering a liquidity trap due to the risks of balance-sheet recession,” said Natixis’s chief economist for Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. Yet about 180 domestic A-share companies say in their stock filings that they have invested in CDs this year. China’s 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil’s population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year. “I wouldn’t pour money into the stock market any time before I see a clear rising trend,” he said.

Persons: Florence Lo, ”, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, “, Byron Gill, ‘, ” Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, ” Wu, John Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo’s Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai

Analysts see the same lack of confidence in today's Chinese households and companies that Japan grappled with in the 1990s. But in China's case there is a key difference; there is no deflationary threat yet, nor have banks switched off lending. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and former adviser to the central bank, told a forum in June that China faces a liquidity trap but not a Japan-style deflationary morass. China's policymakers have cut rates and encouraged banks to lend more in efforts to revive economic growth after the pandemic. China's 220 million retail stock investors, equivalent to Brazil's population and the biggest drivers of daily moves, have kept to the sidelines this year.

Persons: Florence Lo, Asia Pacific Alicia Garcia Herrero, Byron Gill, Gill, Betty Wang, Wu, John, Winni Zhou, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, Asia Pacific, Pacific Opportunities Fund, U.S, Bank, ANZ, Eastroc Beverage, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo's, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Japan, China, Bank, Shanghai, Singapore

LONDON/NEW YORK/HONG KONG (Reuters) -For hedge funds, the second half of 2023 is all about pouncing on the ways in which inflation, aggressive rate hikes and decarbonisation are shaping the economy. Five prominent funds shared their ideas using five different asset classes to trade on this uncertainty. The ideas do not represent recommendations or trading positions, which hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. 1/ UBS O’CONNOR* Alternatives platform, with both hedge funds and credit* Size: $9.5 billion* Established in 2000* Key trade: Long so-called “busted” convertible bonds, or hybrid securities where the stock trades below its option conversion price. Seminara favored long positions in investment grade bonds and shorting high yield ones via the iTraxx Europe and iTraxx crossover indices.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Casey Talbot, Alpha, ” Talbot, Byron Gill, Howard Smith, Anastasia Tarasova, Tarasova, Andrea Seminara, ”, Seminara, CRAWFORD, ERIC STURDZA, Eric Sturdza, Chris Crawford, Biden, “ They’re, Crawford Organizations: Reuters, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, UBS, UBS O’Connor, Companies, Indus Capital Partners, Capital, Federal, Redhedge, Asset Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Eric Sturdza Investments, Fund Management, Crawford Fund Management Locations: HONG KONG, New York City, U.S, Asia, Ukraine, Europe

Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Prime Partners SA, a Swiss wealth manager with around $4.1 billion of assets, says it is difficult for investors to avoid China exposure. Indus Capital Partners, a New York-based investment manager, started to reduce exposure in China in pan-Asian funds in 2021, but has since returned. Greater China exposure in its $1.37 billion long-only fund, Indus Select, has increased modestly. Some fund managers think Xi wants to quickly get back to the business of supporting the economy. "Investors are just in this 'wait and see' mode to get more clarity that stronger growth can be achieved," said St Clair.

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