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☆ Wall Street expects rate hikes are off the table for now. Next week’s inflation data will test that thesis
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Stocks have been churning higher lately after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated rate hikes are likely off the table , a position that investors expect is a bullish event for equities. A strong earnings season, as well as some cooler labor data , also have investors more optimistic in this year's outlook. On Friday, all three major averages are on pace for a winning week, with the 30-stock index up by more than 2%. The market reaction Inflation data has been crucially important this year for investors. Export Price Index (April) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (April) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mike Dickson, Stocks, Dickson, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder, Strategas, Jason De Sena Trennert, Ken Mahoney, Mahoney, Charles Schwab, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Horizon Investments, Nasdaq, UBS, Investments, ICE, Fed, LPL, Asset Management, Walmart, Deere, Retail, Cisco, Price, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, Materials Locations: NAHB

☆ There’s a surprising bit of good news lurking in the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders fear that elevated rates will uphold painfully high borrowing costs for consumers, squeeze corporate profit and weigh down the market. The labor market has stayed strong, consumers have continued spending and stocks have notched repeated record highs. The April jobs report was a welcome sign that the labor market is cooling without cratering. The labor market added just 175,000 positions last month, marking its lowest tally since October 2023 and a sharp cooldown from the upwardly revised 315,000 jobs added in March. First-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed last week to 231,000, the highest level since last August, in another sign that the labor market is cooling.

Persons: “, ”, Jeff Buchbinder, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, April’s, David Russell, Matt Egan, Wally Adeyemo, Read, Diksha Madhok, Narendra Modi, Modi, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, Ambani, Ji, ” Modi, Rahul Gandhi Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Traders, CNN, Fed, LPL, ” Treasury, Treasury, Reliance Industries, Adani, Indian National Congress Locations: New York, Thursday’s, ’, India

It turns out that a long pause between Federal Reserve rate actions is historically good for stocks, according to LPL Financial. The pause, which has reached 280 days, is the second-longest in modern market history, LPL noted, behind only the 2006-07 pause that reached 446 days. "Long pauses are typically good for stocks, and the gains achieved since the Fed's last hike in July 2023 are consistent with recent history," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "The pace and rise of the S & P 500 during that time are in line with what we are seeing now." Still, the strategist observed that the sectors that have historically outperformed during long pauses are financials and energy, which generally return 15% for the period.

Persons: LPL, Jeff Buchbinder, Buchbinder Organizations: Financial, Investors, LPL

☆ How US presidential election years affect the market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But if the past century is any guide, the long-term consequences of US presidential election years on investor portfolios, including 401(k)s, is minimal at best. Unsurprisingly, those four presidential election years occurred at times of seismic events: The Great Depression. The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to presidential election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. “If you’re not going to make a change in a nonelection year, you shouldn’t do so in a presidential election year,” Mukherjee said.

Persons: TIAA, ”, Niladri Mukherjee, Jeff Buchbinder, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, ” Mukherjee, Mukherjee, What’s, — Mukherjee, you’re, Daniel Crosby, Crosby Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Bank, “, Senate Locations: New York, United States

☆ Disney proxy battle is about a lot more than just two board seats
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

As for the newsletter, in today's big story, we're breaking down Disney's big proxy fight . Activist investor Nelson Peltz's proxy fight against Disney for two seats on the company's board comes to a head at its annual shareholder meeting today. The total amount spent between Disney and its rivals wrangling votes is estimated to be at least $70 million, a record for a proxy fight. The statue of Walt Disney and Mickey Mouse at Cinderella Castle at the Magic Kingdom, at Walt Disney World, in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. 3 things in businessWin McNamee/Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIIn other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayThe Walt Disney Company's annual meeting will be held today.

Persons: —, Congrats, ya, Bob Iger, Nelson Peltz, Neilson Barnard, David A, Grogan, Nelson, Madeline Berg, BI's Peter Kafka, BI's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Walt Disney, Mickey Mouse, Joe Burbank, Rowe Price, Peltz's Trian, Neuberger Berman, Peltz, It's, Trian, they're, Stocks, Ray Dalio, it's, Quincy Krosby, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Alyssa Powell, Win McNamee, Chelsea Jia Feng, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, National, Getty, Disney, Magic, Walt Disney World, Orlando Sentinel, Tribune, Wall, BlackRock, Peltz's Trian Partners, California Public Employees, Financial Times, DuPont, Fed, JPMorgan, Bridgewater Associates, Astera Labs, Arm Holdings, LPL Financial, Apple, Nvidia, BI, Walt Locations: —, Virginia, Lake Buena Vista , Florida, China, Haiti's, New York, London

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns current market conditions are worse than in 99.9% of history — typically meaning stocks are ripe for a 10%-30% sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America

☆ ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks are continuing to prop up S&P 500 earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The start of earnings season had some good news, and some bad news, as I mentioned Tuesday . Without those six stocks, the rest of the S & P is expected to see earnings fall 6%. Earnings for the S & P 500 are expected to grow 11% in 2024, a tall order, Buchbinder says, given he estimates the U.S. economy will grow only 1% this year. "The slow-growth economy we expect will not be conducive to big earnings gains," he says, which is why his estimates of $235 for the S & P 500 earnings in 2024 are well below the consensus of $243. Morgan Stanley said, "As we enter 2024, we are positioned to capitalize on the opportunity set.

Persons: Savita Subramanian, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Tesla, Buchbinder, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, LPL

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Tuesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading following a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, along with S&P 500 futures . Interactive Brokers lost nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings that fell short of expectations. The Federal Reserve's beige book and business inventories for November are also slated for Wednesday, along with remarks from New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams.

Persons: Stocks, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Dow Jones, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Interactive, Federal Reserve, Dow, Bank of America, LPL, U.S . Bancorp, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, New

☆ Investing veterans break down their outlook for the year ahead as markets return to pre-2008 conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Goldman Sachs said the S&P 500 can climb 8% in 2024 as pre-2008 conditions return. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The major indexes are up in 2023, with the S&P 500 notching a healthy gain of more than 17% year-to-date. Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said he expects about a 10% gain for the S&P 500 in 2024. Meanwhile, Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, expects "high single-digit returns" in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, David Russell, Russell, boomers, Millennials, Steve Wyett, Wyett, Mark Hackett, Hackett, Gene Goldman, Brian Price, Jeff Buchbinder, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal, Fed, BOK Financial, Nationwide, Business, Cetera Investment Management, LPL Financial

☆ History shows us this market is 'a real bull', says LPL's Jeff Buchbinder
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHistory shows us this market is 'a real bull', says LPL's Jeff BuchbinderAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity and Jeff Buchbinder, LPL Financial chief equity strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the day's market action, where the stock market is headed in the second half of the year, a surprise GDP revision, and more.

Persons: Jeff Buchbinder Ann Miletti, Jeff Buchbinder Organizations: Allspring Global Investments, LPL Financial

☆ Stocks are up big this year. But top Wall Street strategists are warning that trouble is brewing under the surface of the market — threatening to sink it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China

☆ Focus shifts to retailers as U.S. quarterly results hit final leg
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are anxious to see whether the last results of the earnings season may be enough to turn the estimate for S&P 500 first-quarter earnings positive on a year-over-year basis. Results so far this earnings season have been much better than expected. Based on reports from 457 of the S&P 500 companies as of Friday and analyst estimates for the rest of the components, first-quarter S&P 500 earnings were estimated to have declined just 0.6% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv data. "The retailers are going to be important because obviously they're going to be a clear sign of where the consumer is headed. Both the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Dow (.DJI) posted losses for last week.

☆ An indicator with a 94% accuracy rate says stocks will finish 2023 positive, according to $1 trillion LPL. Here's their top pick for where to put your money right now — and 5 other areas of the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The December Low Indicator just signaled stocks should finish 2023 in the green. The indicator also shows the S&P 500 could return well above 10% this year. A stock-market signal with a 94% accuracy rate just delivered good news: there's a high chance stocks finish positive in 2023. The S&P 500 returned more than 7% in the first quarter, so it's well on its way to a double-digit year." The Vanguard Industrials ETF (VIS) and the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) offer exposure to the above areas of the market.

The only HIV vaccine in a late-stage trial has failed, researchers announced Wednesday, dealing a significant blow to the effort to control the global HIV epidemic and adding to a decadeslong roster of failed attempts. “I don’t think that people should give up on the field of the HIV vaccine,” Fauci said. Fauci said that a critical limitation of the Mosaico vaccine was that it elicited what are known as non-neutralizing — as opposed to neutralizing — antibodies against HIV. As with the Thai trial, the hope is to channel research findings into future HIV vaccine development. To prove a vaccine works, researchers must recruit participants who remain at substantial risk of HIV over time.

☆ Stock futures are flat with all eyes on key inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Wednesday as investors awaited a key inflation report to assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both flat. All eyes are on December's consumer price index reading with the consensus forecast calling for a slight easing in price pressures. Stocks rallied Wednesday ahead of the inflation report as investors bet that the Fed could slow down its rate hikes in light of tamer prices. The Dow climbed more than 260 points, while the S&P 500 gained 1.3% with all 11 sectors ending the day higher.

☆ Premarket stocks: Markets are in trouble. Election results won't change that
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN Business —The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections will set the agenda for the next Congress. But when it comes to the stock market, this election ranks fairly low on the list of things investors should worry about. But stocks have a bigger problem than who takes the House or Senate: The possibility of a recession ahead. Politics have taken a less central role in recent discussions with investors than they have in past election cycles, they added. The bottom line: When it comes to the next big market catalyst, investors should look to the Fed, not Congress.

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