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Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."
Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade
Wage growth, by various measures, has softened in recent months, but inflation has fallen by even more. Workers are better off as a result: Pay, adjusted for inflation, rose in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The slowdown in wage growth has surprised some economists because the unemployment rate remains very low, which ordinarily would put pressure on companies to raise pay to attract and retain workers. But other evidence suggests that the labor market has softened even without a big increase in joblessness. Employers are posting fewer job openings, are adding fewer new jobs and are poaching fewer employees from competitors, all signs that demand for workers has slowed.
Persons: , Beth Ann Bovino, Michael Gapen Organizations: Workers, , U.S . Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: joblessness
Where jobs were gained and lost in March
  + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Government employers and the professional and business services industry also hired at a solid clip last month. Strongest gainsLeisure and hospitality employers added 72,000 jobs last month, the most of any industry. Health care businesses added 34,000 jobs and employment in the business services sector — which includes many white-collar jobs such as accountants, engineers, and consultants — grew by 39,000. The construction industry lost 9,000 jobs in March, the first decline in construction employment in more than a year and the largest job loss in the sector since May 2021 -— though still a drop of just under 1.1%. But while new residential construction has slowed over the past year, construction jobs have held up, mostly because of a backlog in construction projects, Swonk said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo market watchers discuss how the first Fed policy decision of 2023 will impact the marketsPalumbo Wealth Management CEO Phil Palumbo and S&P Global Ratings Chief U.S. Economist Beth Ann Bovino discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision.
Beth Ann Bovino expects stubborn inflation, a recession, and higher interest rates and unemployment. The top S&P economist sees rates peaking around 5% and unemployment hitting 5.6% next year. Bovino suggested inflation has probably peaked, but it might not approach the Fed's target until late 2024. Bovino predicts a 0.8% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) from peak to trough, in line with the 1969-1970 recession. Read more: Money managers say these 10 stocks are screaming buys despite rampant inflation and lingering recession fears, according to Morningstar
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInvestors are closely watching the nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, but not for the usual reasons. In normal times, strong job gains and rising wages would be considered a good thing. When they get bad news on the economy, that means the Fed is going to tighten less." In real terms, Swiber said that likely means no change until the economy is actually losing jobs. Next week's CPI reading is likely to be more consequential when it comes to any shift in Fed attitudes, she added.
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