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☆ Soaring debt and deficits causing worry about threats to the economy and markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Uncharted territory for debt and deficitsIndeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits. Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse. "The huge obvious problem is that the U.S. federal debt is now on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory," analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent note.

Persons: Greenlee Beal, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, hasn't, Wolfe Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Wall, CBO, Union, JPMorgan Chase, Sky News, Bridgewater Associates, Financial Times, Treasury Department, Wolfe Research, U.S ., Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Amsterdam, London, America, U.S

☆ How Trump’s tariff plans could kill jobs and worsen inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.

Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, ”, Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, “, Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, “, Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States

☆ Here’s why some bond traders care so much about the US government’s budget deficit nowadays
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

And as the mountain of debt keeps piling up, and the government’s budget deficit remains massive, some bond traders are now joining politicians in decrying the government’s ever-growing financial obligation. Those bond traders are seemingly up in arms over the government’s gaping budget deficit — something that occurs when the government’s spending outstrips revenues — which currently stands at roughly $67 billion so far for the current fiscal year. For the full 2023 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit stood at a staggering $1.5 trillion. How do we manage the budget deficit? Our interest rate team is looking at the 10-year (US Treasury) yield to be closer to 4% than 5% next year.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, Bell, Joe Quinlan, It’s, it’s, what’s, You’d, Powell, ” Powell, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Treasury Department, Congressional, Office, Federal, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Treasury, Spelman College, US Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Atlanta

☆ Ed Yardeni says the ‘bond vigilantes’ have retreated, so the S&P 500 can rally to 4,600
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In Yardeni's estimation, the bear market ended in October 2022, and the stock market has been in a bull market since, calling the August-through-October weakness simply a correction. Yardeni is credited with coining the term " bond vigilantes " in the 1980s. US10Y 1M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated from its late-October highs. "We are expecting that both the bond yield and the oil price will stabilize around current levels. During the latest stock market correction, the Bond Vigilantes saddled up and were riding high.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Santa Claus Organizations: Yardeni, Treasury, Bond Vigilantes Locations: Santa

☆ The bond vigilantes 'aren't necessarily done' voicing their concerns, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond vigilantes 'aren't necessarily done' voicing their concerns, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the bond market and Treasury yields, the Fed's inflation fight, oil markets, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, Treasury

☆ Spiking Treasury yields are triggering pain in stocks. 3 experts discuss the renewed threat of bond vigilantes and what else could move markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are now tasked with trying to understand where bond yields go next, and what the drivers of those yields would be. Forget about the technical charts, he says — they are not driving the bond market right now. While Fed policy has consequences for the bond market, investors drive the yield, Johnson said. That means trying to predict where bond yields will settle will be very hard. But fear in the stock market could translate to greed in the bond market as investors flee to safety.

Persons: Paul Ciana, Gordon Johnson, —, Johnson, Ed Yardeni, Kevin Zhao, Liz Truss, Ray Dalio, Fitch, Eric Leve, Michael Gayed, there's, Russell, Leve, hasn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, GLJ Research, UBS Asset Management, CNBC, Greenwich Economic, Tidal Financial, P Bank ETF, BlackRock Locations: Bridgewater, Greenwich

☆ The case for a career in bond investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

I sensed familiarity with the recent fate of fixed income benchmarks such as Austria’s hundred-year government bond. For this reason, when bond yields are low, the sensitivity of capital prices to inflation and interest rate shocks is high, and vice versa. The appreciating greenback has been a drag on much of the global fixed income universe for the past decade. The real reason to go into fixed income investing, I explained, is that you get to tell governments what to do. Now that the end of monetary anaesthesia has awoken fixed income from its 15-year coma, I told the MBA students, you’ve got your chance.

Persons: Bonds, That’s, Torsten Slok, GMO’s, Liz Truss, ”, Bill Clinton’s, James Carville, you’ve, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S ., JPMorgan, Economist, UK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Venezuela

☆ Global bond rout looks 'tremendously dangerous' for stocks, hedge fund manager warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An intensifying bond rout is piling pressure on the global economy and creating a "tremendously dangerous" outlook for equities, the chief investment officer of Livermore Partners hedge fund said Friday. Bond yields move inversely to prices. That, in turn, has pushed bond yields higher and sapped money from government budgets by raising borrowing costs. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, yields have hit their highest level since the 2011 euro zone debt crisis. "I think that is going to cause a lot of pain moving forward in terms of the economy," Neuhauser said.

Persons: David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, Bond, Kevin Zhao, Scott Heins Organizations: Livermore Partners, CNBC, U.S . Treasury, UBS Asset, New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Getty Locations: Germany, Europe's, Japan, NY, New York City

☆ Treasury bond auctions may eventually fail because investors will see federal deficits as too unsustainable, Columbia finance professor warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Ballooning government deficits could lead to failed Treasury auction soon, a Columbia Business School professor said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "One of the possibilities that's driving bond yields higher is the concerns about inflation risk related to the cumulative effect of debt," Calomiris said in a CNBC interview on Monday. Investors, who are increasingly worried about mounting US deficits, choose to keep their money out of Treasurys.

Persons: —, Charles Calomiris, Calomiris, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Columbia Business School, Service, CNBC, Fitch

☆ 'The bond vigilante is coming back,' UBS strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersThe bond vigilantes are coming back as investors continue to sell amid the prospect of higher for longer interest rates and a growing fiscal deficit, according to Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management. "The bond vigilante is coming back, so this is very important for asset prices in equity, house prices, fiscal policy, monetary policy, so no longer is this a free ride on bond markets anymore — so the government has to be very careful in terms of the future. "A few months ago, most people expected the U.S. government deficit would keep going down with growth slowing — it was 3.9% last year and it's actually going up with growth slowing — that is quite alarming for bond investors." The term "bond vigilantes" refers to bond market investors who protest against monetary or fiscal policy they fear is inflationary by selling bonds, thereby increasing yields. Fed fund futures pricing reflects a 98% probability that the central bank keeps its main interest rate unchanged at the current target range of 5.25-5.5% at its next monetary policy meeting.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Kevin Zhao, Jerome Powell, Zhao, Liz Truss, it's Organizations: UBS Asset Management, Treasury, Federal, U.S, Treasury Department, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: British, Treasurys

☆ A bullish trade on tech stocks using options that could cost nothing, if it moves in right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The highly anticipated speech moved the 10-year yield lower to nearly 4.90% as another rate hike in 2023 seemingly has become less likely. The option strategy that I will utilize is a credit spread but, better known as a risk reversal. If an investor is long a stock, they could create a short risk reversal to hedge their position by buying a put option and selling a call option. No cost...with a catch This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade. While there is a lot of time before this option strategy expires, there is an opportunity to manage this spread as it either moves for or against me.

Persons: Jerome Powell, dovishly, Powell, Powell's, Long Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury Locations: U.S

☆ Key takeaways from the IMF/World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France. Sri Lanka said on Thursday it reached an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China covering about $4.2 billion of debt, while talks with other official creditors are stalling. There was much talk ahead of Marrakech on revamping the IMF and World Bank to better reflect the emergence of economies like China and Brazil.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Mercy Tembon, Finance Serhiy Marchenko, Ceda Ogada, Kristalina Georgieva, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen, Kate Donald, Ahmed El Jechtimi, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Leika Kihara, Elisa Martinuzzi, Rachel Savage, Jorgelina, Rosario, Balazs Koranyi, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Reuters, Export, Import Bank of, World Bank, Oxfam International's Washington DC Office, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Moroccan, Marrakech, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China, Brazil, U.S

☆ Treasury bond auctions have been ugly lately, and weak demand could be a 'canary in the coal mine'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A recent string of Treasury auctions has suffered from weak investor demand. But Ed Yardeni thinks yields are already at the right levels to start bringing back demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementA string of recent Treasury bond auctions saw a major slump in investor demand, and that could be a harbinger of a trend that sends yields higher, strategists said. But market veteran Ed Yardeni told Insider that bond yields could already be at the right levels to bring back demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementHe also noted that while the recent auctions didn't go well, bond yields didn't shoot to new highs.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Bill Ackman, Larry Fink, Bill Gross, Yardeni, Penn Wharton Organizations: Securities, Service, Treasury Department, TD Securities, Treasury

☆ Key takeaways from the IMF-World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen arrives for a bilateral meeting on the third day of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 11, 2023. Susana Vera | ReutersOvershadowed by fresh Middle East violence and hosted by a country still recovering from an earthquake, the week-long annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday. Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer-term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Susana Vera, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Italy —, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank, Reuters, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Export, Import Bank of Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Moroccan, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ Ed Yardeni explains why the bond vigilantes aren't happy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni explains why the bond vigilantes aren't happyEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the current state of the bond market, the recent 'disorderly' selling of bonds, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, aren't Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ PIMCO's Bill Gross: Bond market is a captive of the treasury supply, the Fed, retail bond vigilantes
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPIMCO's Bill Gross: Bond market is a captive of the treasury supply, the Fed, retail bond vigilantesHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.

Persons: Bill Gross, Brian Sullivan, “ Organizations: CNBC

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expectations around where the Federal Reserve will set its own key borrowing rate, increased slightly to 5.129%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last up just over 9 basis points to 4.781%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose as high 4.874%, also the highest since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates and as an investor confidence barometer, on Tuesday surged to its highest level since 2007. "Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we're watching to see if the high-yield market is next," he added.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, it's, Loretta Mester, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed Locations: U.S

☆ America’s Debt Problem Is Too Big for the Bond Vigilantes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Spencer Jakab | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

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Persons: Dow Jones

☆ Inflation is the number one issue for me, says Yardeni Research president
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is the number one issue for me, says Yardeni Research presidentEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Yardeni's worried about in the economy, whether the U.S. government should be worried about bond vigilantes, and the best-case scenario for the economy.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Bond vigilantes are 'saddling up.' Here's how concerned investors might take action over the ballooning federal deficit.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bond vigilantes are "saddling up" again as federal deficits balloon, said market veteran Ed Yardeni. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that." Now there are signs they are stirring again as bond yields continue to climb despite signs of cooling inflation. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that," he said. In a now-legendary commentary from 1983 titled "Bond Investors Are the Economy's Bond Vigilantes," Yardeni warned, "So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy, the bond investors will.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, e've, Yardeni, we've, James Carville, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Bond Organizations: Service, Treasury, Yardeni, Bloomberg, Federal, Republican Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Japanese yen tumbles, bonds rally after BOJ keeps policy ultra easy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index , which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84.

And for financial markets it begs the question as to whether the extent of the monetary or fiscal tightening currently assumed will ever actually happen. The OBR reckons UK consumer price inflation has now peaked and will back off to a full-year rate of 7.4% next year. But assuming standing market forecasts for energy prices and BoE rates, it then sees inflation fall below zero for eight quarters from the middle of 2024. The BoE also expects headline inflation to plummet into 2024 - and its 'fan chart' of the range of possible outcomes also has an outside chance of deflation then too. Delaying spending cuts until after an election won't help much in that regard if indeed they're seen necessary at all.

☆ Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The combination of crises, caused by President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and hefty borrowing when interest rates were artificially low, will test the bloc. Then the European Central Bank was able to keep interest rates low and buy government debt. ENERGY SQUABBLESEU leaders congratulated themselves early in the year when they came together to condemn Putin’s invasion, impose sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine. EU leaders are already complaining about high interest rates, with Giorgia Meloni, the new Italian prime minister, criticising the ECB last week. But the central bank cannot avoid raising interest rates even if it wanted to.

☆ Taking cover in bonds ahead of a recession? BlackRock says that's now an 'obsolete' strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

One important part of the recession playbook is "obsolete" — and that's seeking shelter in bonds, according to BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. "We're underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don't think they can be a safe haven when recession comes," BlackRock wrote. Higher rates and inflation will create a "ripe environment" for investors to demand higher term premiums for long-term bonds, BlackRock said. The move sent financial markets into a tailspin , as investors ditched U.K. bonds and sold off the pound. What to buy Investors still looking to buy bonds should prefer inflation-linked ones as they are "not pricing in persistent inflation," BlackRock said.

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