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☆ Morning Bid: Sidestepping Moody's rating twist
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. It's the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. Treasury as Fitch lowered its rating in August and S&P removed its AAA in 2011. On one level, there's some relief the AAA rating was maintained despite the darker outlook. And that would at least keep the Federal Reserve at bay despite its warnings last week that another rate hike was still on the table. Line chart with data from LSEG Eikon show the U.S. consumer price index inflation, core CPI inflation and federal funds target rate from Jan. 2019 to Sep. 2023.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, William Foster, Mike Johnson, China's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Suella Braverman, David Cameron, Lisa Cook, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Tyson, Henry Schein Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, AAA, Reuters, . House, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Tyson Foods, Walmart, Bank of England, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall St, San Francisco, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Oil up but restrained on Mideast jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. U.S. crude oil prices rose about 3% higher on Monday as Israel retaliated for Saturday's shock attack by the Islamist group Hamas. With concern about a spillover over the long-running conflict to the wider stage, oil and other traditional global 'safety' plays caught a bid. What's more, any direct connection to Iran's possible involvement would scupper any easing of sanctions there and affect an estimated 3% of world oil supply. A sustained oil price rise from here could aggravate the inflation picture the Fed is negotiating - but could also drag on growth too.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Mike Dolan, Israel, What's, Friday's, Jaime Gilinski, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Hamas, Saudi, White, Street, Tehran, Treasury, U.S, Columbus Day, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Stock, Tel, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, Metro Bank, Metro, Columbus, Federal, NYSE, World Bank, IMF, Dallas Fed, Bank of England, United, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midland , Texas, U.S, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Saudi, Russia, Tel Aviv, Europe, Marrakesh, Morocco, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Japan jolt as inflation forks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A man walks past the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 17, 2023. "If we judge that Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates, we'll do so," Ueda said. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally (.DXY) on the foreign exchange markets. If Japan's does tighten further by yearend, it comes as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate hike campaigns are coming to halt. News of an expected return of headline Chinese consumer price inflation to positive territory last month and above-forecast August lending data helped mainland shares (.CSI300) higher, with the yuan bouncing back from 16-year lows.

Persons: Issei Kato, Mike Dolan, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Alibaba, Daniel Zhang, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, U.S, Tokyo Stock, Nikkei, Global, Treasury, yearend, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Fed, CPI, OpenAI, Wall Street, SoftBank Group, underwriters, Bank of England, Oracle, Graphics, Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Hong Kong, Ottawa

☆ Morning Bid: Data-hit bond markets end summer lull
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On top of that, there were signs that activity at dominant U.S. service sector firms picked up steam again last month too. Friday's release of the Labor Department's monthly national payrolls report will seal the picture. U.S. Treasury yields hit 16-year highs above 5%, German equivalents hit their highest in 15 years and British gilt yields scaled 2008 peaks. The VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied Wall St volatility - which had been peculiarly subdued right through last month - jumped to its highest since June 1. Crucially, 2-year Treasury yields edged back below 5%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, payrolls, HSI, Janet Yellen's, Elon, Lorrie Logan, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Emelia Sithole Organizations: readouts, Federal, Labor, Dallas Fed, Fed, Treasury, Nikkei, Twitter, Meta, Dallas Federal, Central Bank, Bank of England, NATO, Vilnius Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, China, Canada, New York, Vilnius Reuters

☆ Bank of England's Mann sees case for UK carbon tax
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Britain and other rich nations should consider a carbon tax as the most efficient way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said on Monday. Instead, Mann focused on whether policies introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's surge in energy prices were likely to hamper or boost Britain's weak long-run growth. "As wholesale energy prices level off, now is the time to put in place a longer-term strategy for both greater use of market mechanisms and revenue redistribution," she added. The Bank of England has raised rates 12 times since December 2021, increasing its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% from 0.1%, and financial markets expect rates to hit 5.5% by November. Mann has been a keen supporter of interest rate rises to tackle inflation which peaked at 11.1% last year.

Persons: Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Mann, David Milliken, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, Committee, Britain's, Labour Party, Thomson Locations: Britain, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank calm, rates firm, Alibaba steals show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A semblance of calm has returned to world markets in the final week of the first quarter as the banking storm abates and the spotlight switched to a share-boosting six-way revamp of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Investors cheered the surprise move from Alibaba (9988.HK) as a sign Beijing's corporate crackdown may be nearing an end, sending shares of the Jack Ma-founded firm and peers soaring. The surprise move seeks to take advantage of Ermotti's experience rebuilding the bank after the global financial crisis 15 years ago. Broader stock markets were higher across the board, with Wall St futures up almost 1% ahead of the open. Futures markets now show a 50-50 chance of one more Fed rate hike in this cycle in May and half a point of easing by yearend.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank angst persists, unnerves Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But banks boosted borrowing under the Fed's newly launched Bank Term Funding Program to $53.7 billion - almost 5 times its first outing the previous week. European bank stocks fell 3% early on Friday, with Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) down for a third day - losing 5% amid rising market costs for insuring against the risk of default. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to attend Friday's European Union summit in Brussels and update leaders on the state of affairs in the financial system. Wider markets were lower in Asia and Europe and U.S. stock futures were in the red again ahead of the open. With less than a 50% chance of another Fed rate rise in this cycle now priced into the futures, almost 80 basis points of rate cuts are now seen by year-end.

March 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Given all that, it is maybe surprising that Wall Street's three main indexes 'only' fell between 1% and 1.5%. The RBA raised rates by 25 bps as expected on Tuesday to 3.60%, the highest in more than a decade. But its dovish outlook caught markets flat-footed, and the Australian dollar plunged 2%. Trade activity fell in February, reflecting weak global and domestic demand, but trade with Russia boomed.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's plan, China challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Powell's semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee is widely expected to condone the recent shift in market pricing toward more aggressive Fed rate hikes and a 'higher for longer' rate horizon. The Fed's accompanying report to Congress last week said there was clearly more work to do to curb inflation. As was the case after the last Fed meeting, Powell's unlikely to push back strongly against market re-pricing - not least ahead of the critical February employment report on Friday. Markets have scrambled to push up their bets on the likely peak Fed policy rate over recent weeks as U.S. jobs, retail and inflation soundings have run hotter than most expected. World stocks and Wall St futures were in a holding pattern for the most part ahead of the testimony.

☆ Bank of England's Mann sees inflation at upper end of BoE forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that she expected inflation would be at the upper end of the range of forecasts published by the central bank earlier this month. BoE forecasts on Nov. 3 showed that under the median path for inflation in the central bank's model, inflation in two years' time should be below its 2% target. But the BoE's 'fan chart' - which puts error bands around these inflation forecasts - showed a 28% chance that inflation would still be above 3% at that point. "I can tell you that I am in the upper part of that fan, by a lot," Mann said in a presentation at a central banking conference hosted by King's College London. Mann added that she still thought sterling carried a political risk premium, contributing to its weakness against the dollar.

☆ BoE's Mann: bond purchases for stability were targeted and temporary
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said on Saturday that bond purchases by the central bank in the days after the government's "mini-budget" fiscal plan last month to calm financial markets were "very targeted and temporary." "The financial stability approach, the requirements for financial stability was very targeted, and temporary," Mann said during an event organised by the Marshall Society at Cambridge University. The BoE announced it would intervene in Britain's government bond market on Sept. 28 after prices slumped following the announcement of planned tax cuts by former finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng. Its purchase programme ended on Oct. 14. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by William Schomberg, writing by Muvija MOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BoE's Mann highlights case for front-loading rate rises
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann said on Wednesday there was a strong case to front-load interest rate increases, especially at times of rising inflation expectations. Mann declined to comment on the market situation, but referred back to a report she gave to the British parliament last month on research which supported taking firm action to tackle rising inflation expectations. "In an environment where inflation expectations are drifting, and the data is very clear that they are drifting ... front-loading policy to affect the inflation process and also to affect inflation expectations puts us in an environment where the trade-off is less," she said. Mann was part of a minority on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which voted for a 0.75 percentage point rate rise in September, in contrast to the majority which backed a 0.5 percentage point increase to 2.25%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by David Milliken, Editing by Paul SandleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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