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Michael Hartnett - 2 Hartnett - 2 – - 1 Warren - 1 Ned Davis - 1 Tim Hayes - 1 bullishness - 1 Rocky White - 1
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12 mentions found


☆ It's been four years since the market's Covid low with the S&P 500 returning 25% annualized since
  + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: –, Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
☆ Global fund managers turn uber-bullish as stock rally rolls in to mid-December
  + stars: | 2023-12-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.
Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China
☆ Investors are the most overweight bonds in 14 years, expecting rates to decline, survey shows
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Professional investors are flocking to bonds in a stampede not seen since the end of the financial crisis, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. "The big change in the November FMS was not the macro outlook, but rather the conviction in lower inflation, rates, and yields," Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a summary of the results. The move was "evidenced by the 3rd largest overweight in bonds in the last two decades (only in Mar'09 and Dec'08 were investors more overweight bonds)." Expectations for a bond reversal dominated the November survey, with a record 61% saying they expect lower yields over the next 12 months. The "investor playbook for 2024 is soft landing, lower rates, weaker US$, large cap tech and pharma bull continues, avoid China and leverage," Hartnett said.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, playbook, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Wall Street, Bank of America, Mar, Federal Reserve, pharma Locations: China
☆ In a world of competing stock market narratives, only one is holding true
  + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
No trend in market direction Try to find evidence that the market supports any of these narratives. The ETF to watch is Vanguard Megacap Growth . By contrast, the other 493 stocks in the S & P 500 are seeing earnings projections lower (Q3) or flat (Q4). Apple Q3: up 7% Q4: up 12% Microsoft Q3: up 13% Q4: up 14% Amazon Q3: up 107% Q4: up 2,091% (!) Nvidia Q3: up 471% Q4: up 316% Meta Q3: up 122% Q4: up 176% Tesla Q3: down 30% Q4: down 28% Source: Factset
Persons: Tomas Lee, There's, Russell, Tesla Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
☆ CNBC Daily Open: Investment banking sees signs of life
  + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Banking on Bank of AmericaInvestors pushed Bank of America shares up 4.42% on the bank's earnings and revenue beat for the second quarter. Profit rose 19% to $7.41 billion while revenue increased 11% to $25.33 billion, helped by a 14% jump in net interest income. But fund managers are still cautious, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey.
Persons: Ocado, Morgan Morgan Stanley's, James Gorman's, we've Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Revenue, Bank of America Investors, Bank of America, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey
☆ Fund managers still cautious despite big stock market rally, BofA survey shows
  + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
That fear has led a net 39% of survey respondents to say they are taking less risk than normal, a 2 percentage point increase from June. Interestingly, Hartnett noted that 66% retail investors as gauged by the American Association of Individual Investors surveys are in stocks, the "most bullish since late 2021." Hartnett also noted a "capitulation" move out of commodities, as managers have taken their most underweight position in the sector since May 2020. The July survey captured the sentiment of 262 respondents with $652 billion in assets under management. Sentiment surveys often can be contrarian indicators, so rising pessimism can be a good sign for markets.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, U.S . Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, American Association of, Investors
☆ Wall Street is getting more optimistic the U.S. can avoid a recession
  + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Wall Street has gone from more than a year of worrying about a recession to thinking that one actually may not happen. At this point, the outgoing executive said, it doesn't even matter much if the U.S. hits a technical recession. "What matters is if you have a deep recession that changes the unemployment, and that's not happening," he said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is among those who think the economy can avoid a recession even with 5 percentage points worth of rate hikes since March 2022. Finally, those expecting a "soft landing" for the economy rose to 68%, against 21% of those who see a hard landing.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill, Hill, Gorman, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Citi, Reserve, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey Locations: U.S
☆ Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it. That is a good thing: sentiment indicators are mostly useful at extremes, and when sentiment gets this pessimistic it is usually associated with at least short-term market bottoms. This morning, for example, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets also pointed out that many sentiment indicators were at extremes. In theory, this is good news: she notes that when sentiment gets this bad, the S & P 500 is up 15% on average over the next 12 months. Other sentiment indicators are also at extremes.
☆ Investor pessimism is reaching extremes, and that may be good for markets
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The monthly Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows "investor sentiment close to levels of pessimism seen at lows of past 20 years," according to the survey. This pessimism is consistent with other investor sentiment surveys. The weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, out last Thursday, was at a 6-month low for bullish sentiment and close to the levels of last September, which were near historic lows. Two rules about sentiment indicators: 1) they are contrarian indicators, and 2) they are most useful when the readings are at extremes (as they are now). The firm also noted that other sentiment indicators (money flows, private clients' asset allocation) are not yet in "capitulation" territory.
☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.
☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.
☆ A curious rally is occurring Tuesday in one of the hardest hit stock groups
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.
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