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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is in the midst of a summer rally, says Bank of America's Stephen SuttmeierStephen Suttmeier, BofA Securities chief equity technical strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what he's watching in the charts, and more.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew highs can continue given favorable seasonality, says Bank of America's Stephen SuttmeierStephen Suttmeier, Bank of America chief equity technical strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the strategist makes of the rally of the market lows in April, the market leadership, and more.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 has upside potential to 5600 level, says Bank of America's Stephen SuttmeierStephen Suttmeier, Bank of America chief equity technical strategist, joins CNBC's "Money Movers" to discuss his outlook for the S&P 500.
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A panic spike could send stocks higher heading into November, according to Bank of America. Notably, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a break in the uptrend, and drew near a key psychological support level at 4,200. Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier said the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) could flash an oversold reading below 1.0 as the S & P 500 nears its support levels, a possible capitulation signal indicating it's time for investors to buy. Regardless, Bank of America broadly anticipates the S & P 500 will close the year out at 4,600, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . "In our view, this tactical panic likely coincides with a break below the 200-day MA at 4233 (SPX closed below it on 10/20) and the "FOMO rally / soft-landing" breakout point near 4200 on the SPX," Suttmeier added.
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The S&P 500 is sandwiched between two key technical levels, and the next phase of the bull market can't continue until a breakout occurs. Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier outlined the key technical levels to watch on the S&P 500. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe S&P 500 is approaching a make-or-break moment that will determine whether or not the next phase of the bull market gets underway. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has delivered positive returns 74% of the time in December, with an average monthly return of 1.3%. "Monthly S&P 500 seasonality suggests buying weakness into September and October prior to a fourth-quarter and year-end rally," Suttmeier said.
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The market recovery from last week's lows could be an indication that a market bottom is in place, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors. "While some might see this as 'jumping the gun,' I do feel like there's a good likelihood that Equity market lows could be in place after the constructive bounce in recent days," wrote Mark Newton, the firm's head of technical strategy. Newton pointed to several reasons for this, including: Strong tech returns relative to the S & P 500 . Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier also noted that the fourth quarter is usually a good one for the S & P 500, increasing the likelihood of the broader market index doing well going forward. Going forward, the next test for the S & P 500 comes near the 4,400 to 4,450 range, as investors work their way through oversold conditions, according to Rob Ginsberg of Wolfe Research.
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Many investors expect that could be the capitulation event equities need to bottom out before rebounding. "If you get down to five and a quarter all hell's gonna break loose," Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked sharply to about 4.8% this week, about 1 whole percentage point above where it was in mid-July at around 3.7%. In fact, it won't take much for the positive narrative to start to take hold in markets, Hogan said. Hogan anticipates the S & P 500 could rise to 4,800 by year end, about 13% above where it is currently.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of America's Stephen Suttmeier lays out the techincal setup for Q4Stephen Suttmeier, Chief Equity Technical Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, charts out the road ahead for stocks in Q4.
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The recent comeback in technology stocks is beginning to lose its luster, and that could mean trouble for the broader market. "We think the clock is ticking on tech's absolute and relative performance, and expect it to catch-down to the rest of the market," Krinsky wrote. That's created a resistance range between 12,881 and 12,944 and a first support level within the 12,466-12,400 range. Suttmeier also sees promise in the fact that the Nasdaq has held support within range of its 11,695 mid-March low and 12,000. "If the NDX continues to hold this support, the US equity market can stabilize and build a bigger base," he wrote.
There is a bearish divergence developing between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While the transports index made a higher high in January, the transportation average did not. Dow Theory is a more than 100-year old technical indicator that suggests if transportation companies are doing well, so should the broader economy. Dow theory suggests that the relationship between the two indexes could send a broader signal to investors about the future direction of the stock market. "These bearish divergences into late 2022 and early 2023 show a disconnected equity market, keeping the bearish signal for Dow Theory from early 2022 intact," Suttmeier said.
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