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The decision by OPEC+ to increase oil production will cast a "bearish shadow" over oil prices for the next two years, creating a level of uncertainty not seen since the pandemic severely disrupted demand, according to Deutsche Bank. It is "inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close" to 2.2 million bpd, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh told clients in a note Wednesday. The supply increase is similar in magnitude to the 2.3 million bpd oversupply during the first year of the pandemic in 2020, Hsueh wrote. The policy shift by OPEC+ "marks the end of the tightening cycle that began in October 2022," Hsueh said. The supply deficit of 500,000 bpd this quarter will rise to 1 million bpd in the third quarter before the OPEC+ production increases start, according to Deutsche.
Persons: Michael Hsueh, Hsueh, Goldman Sachs, Brent Organizations: OPEC, Deutsche Bank ., Deutsche Bank, TD Securities, Deutsche, Brent Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Mexico, U.S
The stock market is headed for a 10% decline over the next quarter, Stifel analysts warned. AdvertisementThe stock market is headed for a sell-off in the coming months that will see the S&P 500 drop 10%, according to Stifel strategists. When adjusted for inflation, the overall S&P 500 remains below its level at the end of 2021 — something that could be "emblematic of underlying problems" in the market, Stifel said. "We continue to forecast the S&P 500 corrects about -10% to ~4,750 before the end of 3Q 2024 from the recent peak," strategists said in a note on Tuesday. When the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 transitions out of a Secular Bull Market it historically enters a 'Secular Bear Market,' which is a much more treacherous period for investors."
Persons: , Stifel, Stocks Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Secular
Cooling labor also extended a Treasury rally, with yields on the benchmark 10-year note dropping over seven basis points. Advertisement"When the job market was red-hot in 2022, Fed officials were getting concerned that wage-price pressures could cause inflation to accelerate out of control," Comerica's chief economist Bill Adams said. "Most labor indicators are pointing to a considerably cooler job market now. In Bank of America's view, a reading of 125,000-175,000 would be the optimal range, pointing to continued strength without the need to keep interest rates higher for longer. The bank said a reading in that range would be a catalyst for further stock market gains.
Persons: , Tuesday's, That's, Bill Adams, Powell, May's Organizations: Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank, Here's
Recent documents submitted to a U.S. federal court allege that major British bank Standard Chartered helped finance sanctioned Iranian entities and terrorist groups, and that relevant evidence was ignored by American authorities. The latest court filings, provided by former Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) employee turned whistleblower Julian Knight, claim that U.S. officials lied by denying that he provided them with evidence of far greater wrongdoing by the bank. The officials then applied to dismiss his whistleblower case against the bank as "meritless" in 2019 in order to shield it, Knight alleged. Knight, who led a Standard Chartered transaction services unit between 2009 and 2011, was one of two whistleblowers who gave U.S. investigators confidential bank statements in 2012 and 2013. The authorities in question, including an FBI agent, said that the whistleblowers' claims "did not lead to the discovery of any new … violations."
Persons: Julian Knight, Knight Organizations: Chartered, Standard Chartered Bank, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Hamas, Hezbollah, United Arab, BBC, FBI, CNBC, U.S . Department of Justice, ., U.S Locations: U.S, London, Iran, New York, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Germany
Bad economic news so far has been mostly positive for the stock market, as investors worry over whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. The greenback often rises on bad news as investors seek the safety of cash and equivalents, while the stock market gains on good news. .SPX .DXY line 2024-04-01 Stocks vs. the dollar At the same time, economic data has generally deteriorated, or at least not met Wall Street forecasts. For the most part, bad economic news likely could help convince the Fed that the time is right to start lowering interest rates. Based on the prior two months, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 4.3% in May for that to happen.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Dow Jones, Claudia Sahm, BofA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura: We expect India's central bank to keep its GDP growth projection of 7%Sonal Varma of the bank says "growth has surprised on the upside consistently."
Persons: Sonal Varma Organizations: Email Nomura
Waste Management , Stericycle — Waste Management is buying Stericycle for $7.2 billion , the companies announced on Monday. Stericycle shares jumped nearly 15%, while Waste Management slid 4%. Spotify — The music streaming company climbed 4% following its announcement of premium subscription price increases in the U.S. in July. Lattice Semiconductor , Coherent — Lattice shares dove 11% after CEO Jim Anderson left to take the helm at Coherent, whose stock price jumped 17%. Krispy Kreme — Shares of the company rose 2% after it was upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan.
Persons: Keith Gill, Gill, Stericycle, CNBC's David Faber, Skydance, Shari Redstone, Jim Anderson, Esam, Dickinson, Edwards, Narendra Modi, Claudia Sheinbaum, Cava, Blackwell, Krispy Kreme, Masimo, Piper, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, — CNBC's Sean Colon, Yun Li, Pia Singh, Michelle Fox, Christina Cheddar, Berk Organizations: GameStop, DeepF, AMC, New York Stock Exchange, Waste Management, Spotify, GSK, Court, Paramount Global, Lattice Semiconductor, Company, Bloomberg News, JPMorgan, Nvidia, AMD, Bank of America, Therapeutics, Autodesk Locations: U.S, Swedish, Delaware, Becton, India, Mexico
That's as the chip industry often undergoes 10 quarters of upside after experiencing a downcycle, a pattern that has just begun. However, chip stocks (SOX) change direction 6-9 months ahead of cycle inflection, so semis could potentially peak sometime around 2H25, or another year+ from now," Bank of America said. Bank of America sees major upside potential for both, holding a $1,500 and $1,680 price objective on each. "Industrial/auto chip stocks are less crowded and offer diversification away from AI, with easier compares going into CY25E," the bank said. AdvertisementBank of America holds a price objective of $890 and $650.
Persons: , That's, upcycle Organizations: of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, NXP Semiconductors, KLA Corporation, Service, Bank of America Locations: petering, 2H25, CY25E
Inflation in Turkey topped 75% in May in what economists expect to be the peak before prices start to ease. Consumer prices rose 75.45% in May on an annual basis and 3.37% on a monthly basis, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, a government agency. Economists had previously forecast that inflation in the country of 85 million would peak around 75%. Turkey's central bank has kept its interest rate at 50% since March, citing the continuing need to counter climbing inflation in the country. The bank said at the time that "tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed."
Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute Locations: Turkey
The 60/40 portfolio isn't dead — in fact, it tends to outperform over the long term, according to UBS. The strategy revolves around a simple balanced portfolio, allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to fixed income. That theory was tested when both equities and fixed income slumped in 2022. Crafting a balanced portfolio Falconio expects the new 60/40 construction to look a little different with the rise in popularity of alternative assets. When it comes to traditional fixed income assets, UBS suggests holding strategic, diversified exposure throughout fixed income.
Persons: Cash, Mark Haefele, Leslie Falconio, Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Darla Mercado Organizations: UBS, Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve, U.S . Locations: UBS Americas,
The three keys USB logo is seen outside the London office of Swiss bank UBS in central London, on March 20, 2023. LONDON — UBS on Thursday announced a shake-up of its executive board in the latest phase of a radical overhaul of the Swiss banking giant, following its takeover of fallen rival Credit Suisse. It marks the first time a divisional UBS president has been based in Asia-Pacific, the bank said. George Athanasopoulos and Marco Valla also join the executive board as co-presidents of the investment bank, alongside Damian Vogel, incoming global chief risk officer. The trio replace outgoing board members Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Korner, UBS Asia-Pacific President Edmund Koh, and UBS Americas Regional President Naureen Hassan.
Persons: Iqbal Khan, Rob Karofsky, Sergio Ermotti, Ermotti, George Athanasopoulos, Marco Valla, Damian Vogel, Ulrich Korner, Edmund Koh, Naureen Hassan Organizations: UBS, LONDON, Credit Suisse, Group, Credit, UBS Americas, Swiss Locations: London, Swiss, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Americas, UBS Asia
Shares of Salesforce dragged the Dow lower after it posted its first revenue miss in nearly 20 years. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks continued a painful slide lower on Thursday as traders turned their attention to upcoming inflation data that could set the tone for the market as it heads into the summer months. ET, both indexes became stuck on several websites, though individual stock prices continued to update normally. Shares of Salesforce dragged the Dow as the stock dropped 20% after it reported its first revenue miss in almost 20 years.
Persons: Stocks, Salesforce, , Dow, David Russell Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Treasury, Global, Barclays, Here's
Beth Hammack, a former Goldman Sachs executive, was just appointed Cleveland Fed president. Hammack succeeds Loretta Mester, known for her hawkish stance on inflation policies. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementLongtime Goldman Sachs executive Beth Hammack, who left in February, is heading to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland as its next president. Hammack replaces Loretta Mester, who is stepping down on June 30 after a decade as the Cleveland Fed's president.
Persons: Beth Hammack, Goldman Sachs, Hammack, Loretta Mester, , She'll, Mester Organizations: Goldman, Cleveland Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland Fed's, Business
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementWhile growth has normalized, prices still remain elevated, with median prices of existing and new homes both near all-time highs. In fact, the Housing Affordability Index fell to its all-time low last year, but Schwab noted that it seems to be pushing back up from the bottom. AdvertisementThe bank added that mortgage rates are likely to keep drifting higher, as federal interest rates normalize at around current levels. "Yet, a stabilization in activity, price growth, and interest rate volatility will likely provide a more stable foundation for the sector."
Persons: , Charles Schwab, Schwab, That's, homebuilders, it's Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Redfin
Those searching for pockets of opportunities in the region can look to Goldman Sachs' selection of "alpha" stock opportunities. Goldman Sachs' list of opportunities include stocks with "deep value" and "defensive growth" characteristics. The company's shares are traded in the First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (1.2% weight) and Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Europe Equity ETF (0.3%). 'Strong top-line prospects' Growth stocks the Wall Street bank is bullish on include those "with strong top-line prospects at reasonable growth-adjusted valuations." ASML: Goldman said the company has a "multi-decade competitive moat in High NA, which will be extremely difficult to replicate for the next 10-20 years at least."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, JD, Goldman, ASML, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Alpha, Sports Fashion, International Consolidated Airlines Group, ISS, First, United, AlphaDEX Fund, Equity, U.S . Global Jets ETF, NA, Euronext Amsterdam, Nasdaq Locations: U.S, Danish, Europe, Adyen
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailForeign investors in a 'wait and watch mode' ahead of India's election results: UBSGautam Chhaochharia of the bank says, however, that the economic fundamentals "remain very, very strong."
Persons: UBS Gautam Chhaochharia Organizations: UBS
Investor darling Nvidia is dominating headlines once again after its earnings last week surpassed expectations on the back of the artificial intelligence boom. Morgan Stanley notes that the reaction to Nvidia's first quarter results is "very telling on how much buying power still exists in the market." Here are seven of Morgan Stanley's overweight-rated stocks to play these AI themes: Overweight-rated stocks Among Morgan Stanley's list of AI stock opportunities are South Korean tech giant SK Hynix and Taiwanese chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company . SK Hynix stocks are held in the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (8.4% weight) and Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (8.3% weight). Shares in TSMC are included in the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (25.1% weight) and Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF (22.2% weight) Beyond the headline-makers, Morgan Stanley also sees potential in Japanese manufacturer Advantest Corp .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nvidia's, Hopper, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, SK Hynix, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF, Advantest Corp, Japan Equity, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Alchip Technologies, Technology, Memory Technology, Micronics Locations: Asia, Korean, Korea, Franklin FTSE South, Taiwan, Franklin FTSE Taiwan
The documentary chronicles the rise and fall of the movie-ticket-subscription company MoviePass, and is based on award-winning reporting from Business Insider . The big storyRetirement mathGetty Images;Alyssa Powell/BIFor some millennials, the reality of their retirement plans is that they're a fantasy. AdvertisementIt's not the first time we've gotten troubling data about millennials' retirement plans. But it's not just a lack of savings working against millennials' plans of riding off into the retirement sunset. AdvertisementAnd if you're hoping for a Hail Mary in the form of a fat inheritance to jumpstart your retirement plans, that's not looking great either.
Persons: , MovieCrash, Alyssa Powell, Jacob Zinkula, William Edwards, we've, it's, millennials, Hail Mary, that's, Juliana Kaplan, It's, Johannes Simon, Neel Kashkari, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Oliver Mulherin, Scarlett Johansson, Altman, Jensen Huang, Adam Neumann, Neumann, WeWork, Moviegoing, there's, BI's Peter Kafka, Sheryl Sandberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, HBO, Max, Business, Hail, Reserve Survey, Consumer, Wall, Minneapolis, UBS, Google, Nvidia, BI, Hollywood, HP Locations: Swiss, BI Denmark, New York, London
An ideal setup for the stock market has arrived as earnings grow and the economy slows, Bank of America says. AdvertisementThe stock market has entered an ideal environment to generate further gains as economic growth slows while corporate profits continue to rise, Bank of America said this week. Those average returns fall to 3% with a 63% win ratio when earnings growth is falling and the economy is growing and drop to 2% with a 62% win ratio when both earnings and economic growth are falling. And when both the economy and corporate profits are rising, the S&P 500 delivered an average quarterly return of 2% with a 69% win ratio. At the same time, the bank sees corporate profits accelerating, with earnings per share growing 3% over the last 12 months.
Persons: BofA, Organizations: Bank of America, Service
GameStop — Shares surged nearly 27% following the company's announcement Friday that it had made around $933.4 million from a stock sale. Norwegian Cruise Line Holding — The cruise stock rose 3% following an upgrade to buy from neutral at Mizuho. Bank of America initiated coverage of Viking with a buy rating, citing its "singular brand and clear niche." UBS also gave it a buy rating, saying it's a "pure play in luxury travel." Airbnb — Shares of the short-term rental company added 1.5% following an upgrade by Wedbush to outperform.
Persons: DuPont's, Andrew Boone, Duolingo Max, Boone, Huntington Bancshares, Jesse Pound, Sarah Min, Michelle Fox Organizations: GameStop, Nvidia, Cruise, Mizuho, Street, New York Stock Exchange, Bank of America, UBS, JPMorgan, DuPont —, Citi, U.S, Cellular, Mobile
Super Micro Computer emerged as an investor darling early this year, as Wall Street unearthed the stock, driving it higher with gains that rivalled even Nvidia's. After Nvidia reported blockbuster earnings last Wednesday, Super Micro's shares were rocky again. The prominence of data centers in the AI boom is another tailwind for Super Micro, BofA noted, given the cooling needs of such centers. BofA reiterated its buy rating on Super Micro, giving it a price target of $1,090, or potential upside of about 23%. In a May 20 note, JPMorgan said it has an overweight rating on Super Micro.
Persons: BofA, Supermicro, Paul Meeks, Meeks, JPMorgan, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Micro, Super, Nvidia, Wall, Portfolio Management, CNBC, JPMorgan, Intel, AMD Locations: United States
UBS lifted its S&P 500 price target from 5,400 to 5,600, marking the highest target on Wall Street. The new estimate stems from diminishing recession risk and strong earnings growth. UBS also raised its estimate for earnings-per-share growth for 2024 and 2025. AdvertisementShrinking recession risks and estimate-beating earnings growth have prompted UBS to once again lift its S&P 500 year-end target, the bank said in a Tuesday note. Although UBS had upgraded its S&P target as recently as February, recent economic data has made that month's 5,400 forecast look too weak.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Gary Schilling Organizations: UBS, Service, Chicago
That said, there are still some opportunities to buy AI stocks on the cheap. The stock's current forward price-to-earnings multiple at 20.1 is only slightly below its five-year average of 21.20. It is also cheap — the stock's current forward price-to-earnings multiple at 150.08 is significantly below its five-year average of 761.17. The stock is also trading at a discount to its five-year average, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16. Other favored AI plays that meet the aforementioned criteria include Equinix , Adobe and Western Digital Corp .
Persons: Wall, Morgan Stanley, Snowflake, Tyler Radke, Joseph Moore, FactSet Organizations: Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Meta, Facebook, Citi Research, Micron Technology, Micron, Adobe, Western Digital Corp
Nvidia stock soared 9% on Thursday to record highs after its reported earnings. The company defied analyst expectations yet again, and said that demand for its AI chips continues to outstrip demand. Wall Street analysts were impressed by the results, with a slew of price target increases hitting the tape Thursday morning. Wedbush: "AI revolution just getting started"Analysts at Wedbush said the "AI gold rush" is just getting started as a "tidal wave" of spending on AI chips hits the entire tech sector. The AI Revolution starts with Nvidia and in our view the AI party is just getting started with the popcorn getting ready."
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, it's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Wedbush, AI Jensen Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Wall Street, Center, Data Center, Data, Blackwell, JPMorgan, Meta, Bank of America Locations: 2HCY24, CY25, CY24
Alwy initiated coverage of Waste Management and Waste Connections with a buy rating on each. His $241 price target on Waste Management suggests 15.7% upside, and his $189 price target on Waste Connections implies the stock has roughly 14.4% to rise. This year, Waste Management shares are up 17.2%, while Waste Connections has added 11%. Waste Connections is planning to invest $150 million, most of which will be used for renewable natural gas, or RNG, projects, she said. With that price target, she expects shares could add 7.3%.
Persons: Alwy Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Waste Management, Waste, Services, Casella Waste Systems Locations: American, North America
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