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From property woes to sluggish economic data, China appears to be suffering from long Covid. Wall Street turns bullishBillionaire investors, including Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper and "Big Short" investor Michael Burry, recently revealed they are sticking to their China bets. The famed investor loaded up on Alibaba stock in the second quarter, revealing an $11.2 million position in the company. That makes Alibaba Burry's largest holding, with other Chinese tech stocks including Baidu and JD.com also featuring on Burry's portfolio. Meanwhile, BCA Research recently upgraded Chinese onshore stocks to overweight, with China strategist Jing Sima expecting Chinese onshore stocks to passively outperform global equities.
Persons: Jiang Sheng, It's, Ted Alexander, CNBC's, David Tepper, Michael Burry, Alibaba, Tepper, Burry, JD.com, Jing Sima, George Boubouras, Goldman Sachs, Song Zhiyong, Eric Lin Organizations: Visual China, Getty, Appaloosa Management, KE Holdings, Baidu, BCA Research, K2 Asset Management, CNBC, Bank of America, National Bureau of Statistics, China's Ministry of Transport, Civil Aviation Administration, Asia Pacific Summit for Aviation Safety, Paris Olympic Games, Greater, Greater China Research, UBS Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Europe, Greater China
Brazilian stocks have been on a tear, but stubborn inflation could grind the recent rally to a stop. It's a work in progress, and most likely will require further rate hikes by the central bank." BCA Research's Arthur Budaghyan agreed that the Brazilian central bank is unlikely to hike rates for very long. Against this backdrop, Budaghyan advises clients steer clear of Brazilian stocks in the near term. U.S. investors who want exposure to the Brazilian stock market can obtain it through the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) .
Persons: Bovespa, Fernando Haddad, Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Ramos, Arthur Budaghyan, Budaghyan Organizations: U.S . Federal, CNBC, U.S, Fed, BCA, Banco, MRB Partners Locations: Lower U.S, overcompensate, America, Banco Central, Brazil, U.S
Casanova's view is shared by other experts who have said that both the Republican and the Democratic presidential nominees — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — will remain tough on China. U.S. trade ties with China will remain tense no matter who wins the election in November, according to Carlos Casanova, senior economist at Swiss private bank UBP. Stronger tariffs by Harris cannot be ruled out either, given Biden not only retained Trump's tariffs, he piled on more. During the debate, Harris did not give specifics on her China policy, but said that "a policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century." So it doesn't matter who wins the election," Casanova told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris —, Carlos Casanova, Trump, Harris, Eswar Prasad, Biden, Casanova, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Marko Papic, it's Organizations: Republican, Democratic, CNBC, U.S, Cornell University, America, BCA Research Locations: Yantai, China, China . U.S, Swiss, U.S, United States, Europe, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe didn't get clarity on anything from the Harris-Trump debate, says strategistMarko Papic of BCA Research says the debate has not given any clarity on the outcome of U.S. presidential election, making it difficult for investors to make any macro bets.
Persons: Harris, Marko Papic Organizations: Trump, BCA Research
Hedge fund managers and private equity executives have become the go-to sources for donations for both parties. AdvertisementBut for the industry's biggest names who have become involved in politics, personal interests and values drive their giving. Advertisement'It's a people business'Mercer's global chief investment strategist, Rich Nuzum, advises institutional investors with more than $16 trillion to invest. "You're probably alienating some potential investors," he said, and that puts all investors at risk if it impacts a manager's business health. While LPs prefer their managers stay out of the headlines, Griffin has not been shy in recent years about picking fights.
Persons: , Ken Griffin, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Griffin, Timothy Mellon, George Soros, Lone, Stephen Mandel, Jim Simons, Elliott's Paul Singer, Blackstone, Steve Schwarzman, Singer, Andrew, Rudy Koitchev, Rich Nuzum, Brian Payne, Payne, Chris Walvoord —, Nuzum, Soros, David Tepper, Mandel, Griffin waded, Zia Ahmed, Koitchev Organizations: Service, Republicans, Florida Gov, Business, SEI, BCA Research, Carolina Panthers, Appaloosa Management, Citadel, Citadel Securities, mater, Miami, city's Museum of Science, Industry, LCH Investments, Teachers Locations: Florida, Lone Pine, Washington, Harvard, Chicago, Afghanistan, Illinois
Read previewMarkets are confident that rate cuts will benefit stocks and the economy, but one strategist says lower borrowing costs won't stave off a recession. Yet, BCA Research chief asset allocation strategist Garry Evans said this week that lower rates can't avert a looming downturn. "There's things that are breaking down quite rapidly now," Evans said, including recent manufacturing data. Related storiesEvans said labor and manufacturing data, plus a range of global data like weak Japanese exports, are showing signs of a tough economic outlook worldwide. AdvertisementEvans said the Fed will likely cut rates in September, but that it won't prevent a pending recession.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Jackson, Stocks, Garry Evans, Evans Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Research, CNBC, Labor Department, Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.
Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson
The list of negatives surrounding stocks is growing, according to BCA Research. Chief strategist Irene Tunkel warned in a note Monday that she doesn't "anticipate new market highs within the next three months — there are too many negative crosscurrents for equities." Others on the Street, including BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky and Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier , have warned investors to remain vigilant in the near term. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Wells Fargo initiated Rollins with an overweight rating, citing increased demand for pest control products and services. "Rollins' organic growth rates accelerated from mid-single to high-single digits during the pandemic and have remained at this elevated rate since," Wells Fargo said.
Persons: Irene Tunkel, Tunkel, Jonathan Krinsky, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Wells Fargo, Rollins Organizations: BCA Research, BCA, Bank of America's Locations: Atlanta
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
Read previewFaced with higher rates and a daunting fundraising climate, hedge funds are wooing investors with a seemingly antithetical pitch: index investing with a twist. Hedge fund industry insiders are abuzz right now about "portable alpha," a blast-from-the-past strategy that's undergoing a revival. According to the Morgan Stanley white paper, it can take on a variety of forms, including "dedicated portable alpha funds, portable alpha share classes, portable alpha feeder funds and other solutions." Advertisement"It's a nice way of smuggling hedge funds into your portfolio if you're an allocator," said Jon Caplis, CEO of hedge fund research firm PivotalPath. He said much of the industry still hasn't woken up to the appetite for portable alpha solutions and the potential boon to hedge funds.
Persons: , punchier, Kim Shaw, Morgan Stanley, There's, Shaw, Penny Novick, Morgan, Novick, Bill Gross, Myron Scholes, PIMCO's, Roark Stahler, Jon Caplis, Russell, PIMCO, Sabrina Callin, Brian Payne, Payne, Caplis, hasn't Organizations: Service, Trading, Business, Man, CME Group, BlackRock, Barclays, Russell Investments, Institutional, State, Investor, BCA Research, Teachers, Investors Locations: Winton, American, Illinois
Strategist favors U.S. assets due to geopolitical uncertainty
  + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist on why he favors U.S. assets due to political volatility and geopolitical uncertaintyMatt Gertken from BCA Research says despite signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. the country still has more robust growth due to productivity and technology gains over the long term.
Persons: Gertken Organizations: BCA Research Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. is heading into recession the next 12 months but market is ignoring that risk: StrategistGarry Evans of BCA Research says market risk is "very much" on the downside due to economic slowdown in the U.S. and high-concentration on AI stocks in markets.
Persons: Garry Evans Organizations: BCA Research Locations: U.S
The S&P 500 will plunge 32% in 2025 as a recession finally hits the US economy, BCA Research predicts. The firm said the Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates. And perhaps most importantly, the Fed's plan to blunt any economic decline via interest rate cuts simply won't work. For example, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers is around 4%, compared to current mortgage rates of around 7%. That means even if the Fed cuts interest rates and mortgage rates decline, the average mortgage rate paid by consumers will continue to rise.
Persons: , Peter Berezin, Berezin Organizations: BCA Research, Service, Federal, Wall
CNBC Daily Open: Roaring Kitty, Nike flops, inflation on deck
  + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Nike warningShares of Nike plunged 12% in extended trading after the sneaker giant slashed its full-year guidance, anticipating a 10% drop in sales for the current quarter. Roaring Kitty, back againChewy shares experienced a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, soaring as much as 34% following a cryptic post by meme stock influencer Roaring Kitty, before falling back into negative territory.
Persons: Matthew Friend, Nike's, Tim Wentworth, Kitty, CNBC's Michelle Fox Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Micron, Nvidia, Treasury, Nike, Walgreens, BCA Research Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Lebanon, Greater China, China
U.S. stocks are set to drop more than 30% as a recession hits the U.S. economy in the coming months, BCA Research predicts. We conservatively expect the S & P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession," Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin wrote in a note Tuesday. The calculation is conservative because it assumes that S & P 500 revenue rises in line with nominal gross adjusted product, he explained. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500's one-year performance BCA Research said it sees several feedback loops that will weaken the economy. Absent "overwhelming evidence" of an imminent recession risk, the central bank will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively, he said.
Persons: Peter Berezin, Berezin, JPMorgan's Dubravko Organizations: Research, Tech, Wall, CNBC
Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.
Persons: , they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't see the science of the argument that Japan's corporate governance has improved: StrategistGarry Evans from BCA Research shares his contrarian view on investing in Japanese stocks.
Persons: Garry Evans Organizations: BCA Research
Bitcoin 's gold-like ability to resist any form of seizure makes it a valuable asset for the long term, according to BCA Research, which calls for the world's largest cryptocurrency to eventually rally to more than $100,000. "The bitcoin price will rise well into the $100,000s as the market value for non-confiscatability grows substantially and bitcoin's share of this market grows substantially," Montreal-based BCA Research said. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $73,000 on March 14, rising more than 70% this year. The introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs this year and the tightening bitcoin supply ahead of the late April " halving " have driven the price of the cryptocurrency up. "The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability," BCA said.
Persons: Bitcoin, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, bitcoin, Bullion, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BCA Research, Research, BCA Locations: Montreal
What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
  + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +10 min
Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.
Persons: Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, There’s, ” Trump, it’s, , Patrick Horan, , Tony Soprano, Patrick Kilbane, ” Kilbane, “ Trump, ” George Calhoun, Calhoun, ” Matt Gertken, Alex Nowrasteh, ” Michael Clemens, Clemens, Jerome Powell, Powell, Xi Jinping, Maria Bartiromo, reappoint Powell, Steve Mnuchin, ” Maxime Darmet, Darmet, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Manila ”, Trump, CNBC, Monday, White, George Mason University, Ullmann Wealth Partners, Republican Party, Senate, Affordable, Quantitative, Stevens Institute of Technology, TikTok, Democratic, BCA Research, Labor, CATO Institute, Peterson Institute for International, University of Colorado, Federal Reserve, Federal, Biden, Fox Business, Trump Cabinet, House, Allianz Research, Biden Administration, U.S, Allianz Trade, Congress, GOP Locations: Manila, COVID, China, U.S, America, France
In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan
Megacap tech stocks aren't just powering the U.S. stock market — they're also holding the world together. U.S. equities now comprise 70% of the MSCI World Index, the benchmark for large- and mid-cap companies across 23 developed markets. The MSCI World Index shifts regional and country weights based on broader economic trends. High levels of market concentration in the late 1920s to early 1930s, as well as 2000, coincided with a market top, he noted. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen only 2.6% year to date, underperforming the U.S. broad market index.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Peter Berezin, Berezin, NVDA, Phillip Colmar, that's, Mike Dickson, Dickson, Warren Buffett's, Colmar, It's, you've, Germany DAX Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, BCA Research, Big Tech, MRB Partners, Horizon Investments, Nikkei, British FTSE, France CAC Locations: U.S, Europe, Colmar, Japan, Asia, Germany, France
Wholesale prices spiked in January, rising 0.3% and above expectations in yet another sign that maybe inflation is proving harder to put to rest than the markets and the Federal Reserve had hoped. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase in both the overall producer price index – a measure of prices paid by businesses – and the core, which leaves out often volatile energy and food costs. Increases in shelter costs accounted for more than two-thirds of the increase in the main index, although food prices also increased while energy costs fell. Investors had bought into the notion of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May, but that was called into question by the stronger-than-expected news on inflation. “When will the recession start?” asks Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in a report out Friday morning.
Persons: , Clark Bellin, John Ingram, Chris Giamo, Giamo, , Peter Berezin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, CPI, Dow Jones, Investors, , Crestwood Advisors, , TD Bank, BCA Research Locations: U.S
The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.
Persons: , BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, , Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. tech to see mixed results in 'AI gold rush,' says strategistDhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, gives his outlook for U.S. tech giants' earnings as they seek to capitalize on AI.
Persons: Dhaval Joshi Organizations: BCA Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. is at a historic level of polarization, says BCA Research's Matt GertkenMatt Gertken, Senior VP & Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist at BCA Research, discusses the U.S. government's latest funding bill and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Persons: Matt Gertken Matt Gertken Organizations: BCA Research
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