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☆ What the new Goldilocks job market means for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Business Insider looked at how components of the labor market have settled down, like wage growth. And that more boring but steady labor market could be great news for workers and job seekers. The US could be in a Goldilocks job market. Job switchers are seeing higher wage growth than people staying, according to the 12-month moving average of median wage growth from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. So what will happen to the Goldilocks job market?

Persons: Nick Bunker, Bunker, —, That's, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, " Pollak, Pollak, Job, Julie Su, switchers, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Service, North America, BLS Locations: Atlanta

☆ Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida sees possibility of fewer rate cuts than expected this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stubbornly high inflation could push the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance this year regarding interest rate cuts, the central bank's former vice chair said Friday. "If the Fed were targeting CPI right now, we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts," Clarida said. A Chicago Fed measure of financial conditions is at its loosest since January 2022. "What I think is going on here is a delicate balance that [Powell is] trying to navigate," Clarida said. "Financial conditions will very naturally start to ease when they get the sense the Fed is done and [will start] cutting.

Persons: Richard Clarida, Jerome Powell, Clarida, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Commerce Locations: Atlanta

This confidence is echoed by other recent metrics, including a survey by Morgan Stanley showing that consumer sentiment hit a five-month high in January. Economists who spoke to CNBC Make It say it's likely the cumulative effect of wage growth, low unemployment and slowing inflation. "But with slowing inflation and strong wage growth, adjusted-for-inflation incomes are increasing, giving consumers more buying power," he says. Wages increased 5% in January 2024, a three-month moving average of nominal wage growth for individuals, as measured by the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. Wage growth, slowing inflation and low unemployment are the main factors for improved optimism among Americans, Ernest says.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, what's, Robert Johnson, Here's, Gus Faucher, Johnson, Jonathan Ernest, Ernest Organizations: of Michigan, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, CNBC, Creighton University's Heider College of Business, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Stock, Case Western Reserve University Locations: New, Atlanta

☆ An economist who recently forecast 9 rate cuts now predicts only 2 as growth picks up
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Macquarie economist Danny Doyle said he now expects just two interest rate cuts this year and no recession in 2024 or 2025. Doyle had previously expected as many as nine interest rate cuts just two months ago. One such economist is Danny Doyle, Macquarie's head of economics, who pulled a U-turn on Thursday when he slashed his 2024 interest rate forecast to just two rate cuts of 25 basis points a piece. That's fewer than the Federal Reserve's own forecast of three interest rate cuts this year. Doyle expects the Fed's first interest rate cut to happen at the July FOMC meeting, while the market expects the first interest rate cut to happen in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Danny Doyle, Doyle, Macquarie's Organizations: Macquarie, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's

☆ U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street heads into the week ahead worrying the rally to record highs is running out of steam
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wall Street continues to climb a wall of worry even as investors deliberate how much longer equities can maintain their record run. But questions remain for investors after some major disappointments in an intense week suggested more challenges ahead. Apple dropped 3% this week after reporting lackluster earnings, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Elsewhere in corporate earnings, regional banks as represented by the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF slid 7% after poor results from New York Community Bank spurred investor fears of a wider contagion. Signs of market weakness For investors, there may be more issues in the market going forward in 2024.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Apple, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Russell, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, CNBC's, Sonders, Lehman, Raymond James, Josh Beck, James McCann, Abrdn, McCann, Rhys WIlliams, Williams, it's, Art Hogan, They're, Hogan, Estee, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Rowe Price, Philip Morris Organizations: Meta, Dow Jones, Regional Banking, New York Community Bank, Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Markets, Wayve Capital Management, Riley, Atlanta, PMI, Simon Property, Companies, Tyson Foods, Semiconductor, Caterpillar, Prudential Financial, Ford Motor, Enphase Energy, GE Healthcare Technologies, Consumer, Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, PayPal, Brands, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Uber Technologies, Costco Wholesale, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, Rowe Price Group, ConocoPhillips, The Hershey Co, Philip Morris International, PepsiCo Locations: China

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ Collapsed US money supply is a threat to employment, growth, and inflation, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US money supply has seen its longest stagnation since World War II, according to Jeremy Siegel. "You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," Siegel told CNBC. AdvertisementThe US money supply is flashing a major warning to the US economy, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. Money supply then rebounded through the summer, but has recently returned to its decline, nearing April's low. Advertisement"You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," he warned.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal, Atlanta

☆ After an extraordinary November for stocks, December has a lot in its corner. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Morning Bid: Treasury yields dive as oil craters, economy softens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. two-year Treasury yields skidded below 4.80% on Friday for the first time since September 1, with 10-year yields dropping under 4.40% to September lows too. Crude has now lost almost 25% in just six weeks - aided by the U.S. gradually lifting oil sanctions on Venezuela. The Labor Department said import prices fell a whopping 0.8% in October, the most in seven months amid a broad decline in the costs of goods - deepening the annual deflation of import prices to as much as 2.0%. Even though the dollar (.DXY), , is taking a hit from the plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, the drop in sovereign borrowing rates was mirrored across the world in Europe , even Japan . Mirroring the softening demand picture elsewhere, British retail sales volumes fell unexpectedly in October as stretched consumers stayed at home.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, plumb, Morgan, Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Dave Ramsden, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walmart, Cisco, Alibaba, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Hong, Housing, Atlanta, Boston Federal, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Bank of England, United States, APEC, Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Wall, Alibaba ., Venezuela, Europe, Japan, HK, Hong Kong, China, San Francisco

☆ The market thinks the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively. Investors could be in for a letdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

While Fed officials haven't indicated how many months in a row it will take of easing inflation data to reach that conclusion, 12-month core CPI has fallen each month since April. The Fed prefers core inflation measures as a better gauge of long-run inflation trends. Traders appear to have more certainty than Fed officials at this point. If correct, that would take the benchmark rate down to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% and would be twice as aggressive as the pace Fed officials penciled in back in September. But pricing of Fed actions can be volatile, and there are two more inflation reports ahead before that meeting.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, We're, Crandall, Jerome Powell, haven't, They're, Eric Rosengren Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Boston Fed Locations: New York City, Atlanta

☆ Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Rate cut prospects fuel stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia as markets cast aside concerns about rate hikes, and go straight to pricing in early cuts. Futures imply an 80% probability the ECB will begin easing as soon as April, and the first BoE rate cut is almost fully priced for August. An outlier here is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which might well resume hiking on Tuesday after four months of steady policy outcomes. But expectations were already so low that it's the dollar that has all the downside in the disappointment stakes.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, BoE, Ueda, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Huw Pill, Lisa Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Atlanta, EU, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, South Korea, Europe

☆ 3 things to watch in the stock market next week as bond yields hover at 2007 highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The usual suspects were to blame — rising bond yields, geopolitical tensions, and oil prices — and will hold the keys to the market this coming week. Earnings are one of the three major themes on the marquee next week, with 10 Club companies reporting. Here are the companies: Danaher (DHR), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Veralto (VLTO), Honeywell (HON), Linde (LIN), Amazon (AMZN), Ford (F) and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer, Jim, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Decker, Danaher, Veralto, it's, Mark Zuckerberg, We're, Vimal Kapur, Linde, Jim Farley, Ford, FactSet, Powell, WTI, Baker Hughes, Edwards Lifesciences, Northrop, CARR, Davidson, Dr Pepper, Phillips, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Economic, of New, Treasury, West Texas, Procter, Gamble, 10, Microsoft, Honeywell, Linde, LIN, Health Care, Technology, Communications Services, Google, Meta, Ford, Amazon, United Auto Workers, Atlanta, Wall Street, Hamas, Brent, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Logitech, Verizon, General Electric, GE, RTX Corporation, Halliburton, HAL, General Motors, Dow Chemical, DOW, Xerox, Texas Instruments, F5 Networks, WM, Boeing, Fisher, Mobile, Hilton, General Dynamics, Norfolk Southern, Otis Worldwide, IBM, KLA, O'Reilly Automotive, Mattel, Whirlpool, Gross, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Hershey Company, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Altria, Northrop Grumman, Valero Energy Corp, Mastercard, Merck, Co, Myers Squibb, Newmont, Tractor Supply Company, Comcast, Seagate Technology, Boston, Hertz, Carrier, Hasbro, Harley, Intel, Grill, United States Steel, Boston Beer Company, Texas, University of Michigan, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Sanofi, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: of New York, U.S, Industrials, OpenAI, America, Venezuela, Cleveland, Norfolk, ORLY, Bristol, Brunswick, Oshkosh, New York City

☆ At 5%, this is where chart analysts say the 10-year Treasury yield is headed next
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

☆ Morning Bid: US growth topping China as megacaps report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. The combination of high-pressure growth and U.S. crude oil prices back up to their highest in two weeks has re-ignited inflation concerns. And with a 20-year Treasury bond auction also due later in the day, bond markets are back running scared. Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2006 on Tuesday at 5.24% and held most of those gains overnight - while 20-year yields are hovering around 5.2% as well. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, megacaps Tesla, Jerome Powell, China's, Republican Jim Jordan, Morgan Stanley, Kinder Morgan, Elevance, Joe Biden, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Netflix, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Treasury, Bank of England's, Wall St, Republican, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Northern Trust, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, US Bancorp, Zions Bancorp, Discover, Lam Research, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, Federal, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Graphics Retail, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Gaza, Israel, trepidation, United States, Britain, Wall, Stocks, Asia, Europe, Northern, POPG, Equifax

U.S. retail sales for last month came in much stronger than expected on Tuesday, signaling shoppers were not deterred by sticky inflation. Before the opening bell, the government reported September retail sales rose 0.7% from the prior month — more than double the estimates. Measuring year over year, the 3.8% increase in retail sales was still slightly higher than the CPI's advance of 3.7%. The retail sales data pointed to a resilient economy despite inflation still running way above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies YTD Clothing and clothing accessories stores were down 0.8% month-over-month but increased 0.1% year-over-year.

Persons: Jim Cramer, We're, TJX, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jamie Kelter Davis Organizations: Atlanta, Deal, Web Services, Food, Companies, CNBC, Shoppers, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Maxx, Chicago

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Wall Street closed flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, after forecast-busting U.S. retail sales data stoked expectations for another Fed rate hike by year-end and pushed Treasury bond yields sharply higher. Blame bumper U.S. retail sales, which also sparked a spree of upward revisions to U.S. growth forecasts. With nearly $11 billion of offshore bonds and $6 billion of offshore loans, a Country Garden default would tee up one of China's biggest corporate debt restructurings. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- China GDP (Q3)- China retail sales, investment, unemployment, industrial production (September)- U.S. President Biden visit to IsraelBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, chipmakers, Joe Biden's, Biden, Josie Kao Organizations: Wall Street, Bank of America, U.S, Wednesday, Atlanta, U.S ., Asia's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Israeli, Gaza, Israel, U.S

☆ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Monetary policy is sufficiently restrictiveCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic being the first of the Fed officials to publicly state that interest rate levels have hit sufficiently restrictive territory, and questions about how long the Fed should hold high rates.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Steve Liesman, Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic Organizations: Atlanta

☆ Danger, 'pothole' ahead: Economic growth slowing to a near-halt to end the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Be it the United Auto Workers strike , the impending government shutdown or the resumption of deferred student loan payments , ominous barriers to growth have been lining up. "The economic headwinds are blowing, and they're blowing harder and harder," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently cautioned clients that the Fed may have to take rates a good deal higher yet. Still, that's well rate above the central bank's 2% target, posing another potential headwind to growth. Despite the looming slowdown, consumers, who are pivotal to U.S. growth, have managed to hang in there.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ronnie Walker, Alec Phillips, tumbles, Sam Stovall, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, We're, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Jerome, Powell, They've Organizations: United Auto Workers, Moody's, UAW, Atlanta, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Commerce Department Locations: U.S

☆ The market has shaken off government shutdowns in the past. Here's what Wall Street expects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A government shutdown looming on the horizon could dampen sentiment to start October even as Wall Street wraps up what's been a challenging month and quarter. Many market participants expect that the financial markets and economy will broadly shake off concerns from a shutdown as they have in the past. "The market's probably going to set it aside until or unless it starts to have a larger impact on behaviors." Economic impact Historically, government shutdowns have been relatively short-lived, though they have been longer and more disruptive recently. Meanwhile, Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, expects the government shutdown is "all bark and no bite" when it comes to market reaction.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Rob Haworth, Wells, Michael Pugliese, Bank's Haworth, Aditya Bhave, Jay Woods, Woods, Jeff Hirsch, Hirsch, Lamb Weston Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Nasdaq, BEA, Bank of America U.S, Labor, Freedom Capital, Atlanta Fed's, PMI, Manufacturing, McCormick, ADP, Services PMI, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Consumer Credit Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

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