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☆ BOJ's Noguchi: Japan yet to achieve wage-driven rise in inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. "It's true the impact of elevated global inflation is reaching Japan's economy with consumer inflation exceeding the BOJ's 2% target since the spring of 2022," Noguchi said, according to the text of his speech posted on the BOJ's website. "But the rise (in inflation) is mostly due to cost-push factors amid higher import prices," contrary to the wage-driven price increases seen in the United States and Europe, he said. "To achieve our 2% inflation target, we must see price rises backed by sustained wage increases," Noguchi said. With inflation exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for more than a year, market expectations are heightening that the central bank will exit ultra-loose monetary policy next year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, we've, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe

☆ IMF warning on China puts 'Japanization' risk in spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Under the Xi administration, China probably shifted its attention away from economics," he told Reuters. "What's fast emerging is the risk of China slipping into deflation, or the 'Japanization' of its economy," Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut China's growth forecast for this year to 5.0% from 5.2% in April, and warned that its property sector crisis could deepen with global spillovers. To be sure, there are differences between what is happening in China and the experience of Japan. "Overall, we believe that China can avoid a prolonged period of sub-par growth with the right policies," Srinivasan said, when asked about the chance of "Japanization" in China.

Persons: Aly, Hiroshi Watanabe's, Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's, Watanabe, Xi, Asahi Noguchi, Krishna Srinivasan, Srinivasan, doesn't, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Chizu Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, Japan, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank of Japan, Economic, Pacific Department, Thomson Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, Japan, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Marrakech, Asia, Beijing, Tokyo

☆ Analysis: IMF warning on China puts 'Japanization' risk in spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Persons: Aly, Hiroshi Wanatabe, Watanabe, Xi, Asahi Noguchi, Krishna Srinivasan, Srinivasan, doesn't, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Chizu Organizations: China Evergrande Group, REUTERS, Japan, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank of Japan, Economic, Pacific Department, Thomson Locations: Danzhou, Hainan province, China, Japan, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Marrakech, Asia, Beijing, Tokyo

☆ BOJ's Noguchi says wage growth momentum is biggest focus for Japan economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed in place, with a 3% rise in nominal pay to back efforts to meet the 2% inflation target. "His emphasis on wage growth probably meant the BOJ will retain its easy policy until wage hikes are firmly in place following the labour talks next March." "The biggest focus now is whether this (wage growth) momentum will be maintained or not from now on as well." Noguchi said household inflation expectations are steadily rising, but if wage growth lags behind price hikes, consumers would have no choice but to reduce their spending, as seen lately. "The BOJ's mission for the time being is to realise it (positive growth in real wages) through patient monetary easing," Noguchi said.

Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Yoshimasa Maruyama, Tetsushi, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Niigata, Tokyo

☆ Insight: BOJ makes bold shift as yen risks grow too big to ignore
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The BOJ's decision shook markets on Friday and contrasted sharply with Ueda's more cautious comments in recent months about the dangers of retreating too quickly from accommodative Kuroda-era policies. "There's also a small but probable risk of inflation overshooting in Japan, which gave the BOJ reason to act." NEW PRIORITIESThe BOJ's policy decision last week signalled to investors that it would now allow the 10-year government bond yield to move closer to 1% before it intervenes. 'BIT BY BIT'The shift in thinking gained momentum at the BOJ's June policy meeting, but not enough to turn the tide. It was a test case, or a preliminary exercise, toward future policy normalisation," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Fumio, accommodative Kuroda, Ueda, YCC, There's, Hirokazu Matsuno, Seiji Adachi, Asahi Noguchi, Ryozo Himino, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takaya Yamaguchi, Takahiko Wada, Kentaro Sugiyama, Yoshifumi, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, TOKYO, Bank, Ueda, Reuters, BIT, Asahi, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

☆ BOJ policymaker calls for keeping low rates, focus on wages
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Noguchi also warned of risks to Japan's economy, such as uncertainty over global economic and market developments. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ sets a -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and caps the 10-year bond yield around 0% to reflate growth and inflation. With inflation exceeding its target, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ will soon tweak YCC due to criticism the policy is distorting market pricing and crushing financial institutions' profit margins. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until there is more evidence wages will keep rising next year, helping Japan sustainably hit the 2% inflation target. Reporting by Leika Kihara Editing by Chang-Ran Kim and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Seiji Adachi, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Chang, Ran Kim, Sam Holmes Organizations: Noguchi, Global, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO, Naha

☆ Analysis: Kuroda's abrupt policy tweak opens door for bigger shift next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Waiting until next year would have forced the BOJ to combat intensifying market speculation of a near-term policy shift, or act when a deep U.S. recession could hit Japan's economy, they say. "When uncertainty is so high over the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, it probably wants to have a free hand on when next to act." POLITICS KEY TRIGGERThe abrupt timing of Tuesday's move also reflects growing political pressure for the BOJ to shift away from a policy narrowly focused on its 2% inflation target, the sources say. Hours before he met Kishida, Kuroda explained in parliament a framework on how the BOJ could exit ultra-easy policy in the future. Another dovish board member, Asahi Noguchi, also said earlier this month it "won't be surprising" for the BOJ to shift monetary policy.

☆ As Kuroda bows out, Bank of Japan's rising hawks eye end to unloved yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +12 min

PUBLIC DISCONTENTAfter a tumultuous year for the world's third-largest economy, Japan's central bank and its leadership face a critical moment. While ruling out the need to ditch the yield cap now, Takata recently said he saw positive developments in wage growth. "The BOJ must start worrying about the possibility of inflation accelerating more than expected," he told Reuters, adding the BOJ may abandon its yield cap as early as next year. Such a reaction was seen in March when the BOJ was forced to pledge unlimited bond buying to defend its yield cap from speculative market attacks. "That's why the BOJ won't provide advance signals and remove the yield cap in a single step."

☆ Investors revive wagers on Bank of Japan policy change
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Global investors are short-selling Japanese bonds and driving its other market yields higher, reviving bets that the Bank of Japan will need to tweak its ultra-easy monetary policy sooner rather than later. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly stressed the need to persist with the bank's unique yield-curve-control policy, which makes Japan an outlier among major central banks aggressively tightening policy to combat inflation. Japan swaps vs yieldsKuroda has said policy will not change until the recent cost-push inflation is accompanied by higher growth in wages. "The central bank may tweak its YCC before March. There should be an event weight it doesn’t have at the moment," says Malcolm, while making clear UBS does not expect any policy change for at least another year.

☆ Marketmind: Stop making sense
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. "It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down," Powell said. Perhaps not, but markets are moving ahead with an assumption we're nearly there. European futures indicate stocks in the region will spike higher, tracking Asian equities, which were tracking Wall Street. "To promote wage growth, the BOJ needs to patiently maintain its current monetary easing."

☆ Analysis: Wages, not yen, key to when Japan shifts away from ultra low rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"It's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Japan to finally see a positive wage-inflation cycle kick off," said one of the sources. Were the BOJ to tweak YCC, the most likely first step would be either to hike the 10-year yield target, or widen the implicit 50-basis-point band set around it. LOW RATES NOT FOREVERThe BOJ rules out using rate hikes to stem yen falls, as Japanese law gives the government, not the central bank, jurisdiction over exchange-rate policy. In April, dovish board member Asahi Noguchi said wages must rise by nearly 3% for the BOJ to tweak its ultra-loose policy. Yields on super-long bonds have risen to multi-year highs despite the BOJ's aggressive bond buying, casting doubt on the effectiveness of YCC.

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