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Earlier this week data showed falling factory orders and soft manufacturing activity. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May stood at 60.5%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike was at 39.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors, with healthcare (.SPXHC) and utilities (.SPLRCU) hitting their highest in close to two months. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 185 new lows.
The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling labor market. With growing concerns about a worsening economic outlook following the recent turmoil in the banking sector, market expectations have shifted in favor of the U.S. central bank hitting the brakes on its interest rate hikes. "But at the same time, I think investors are closely watching to make sure that we don't fall into a deep recession." Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 62.2%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 37.8%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for more conclusive clues on the state of the labor market.
The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling economy. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 60.8%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 39.2%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as healthcare (.SPXHC), utilities (.SPLRCU) and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for further clues on the state of the labor market. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week.
This comes just days after cooling inflation raised hopes that the Fed could soon end its aggressive monetary tightening. Shares of other energy firms such as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) were also up 4.9% and 6.0%, respectively, helping drive a 5.2% jump in the energy sector. The tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded its strongest first-quarter jump of 17% since mid-2020. Among other stocks, shares of American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) and Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) edged 0.6% and 1.3% lower on rising crude prices. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 40 new highs and 28 new lows.
Traders' bets are almost equally split between the Fed pausing its rate hikes in May and another 25 bps hike, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Communication services (.SPLRCL) and information technology (.SPLRCT) led the gains among the S&P 500 sector indexes, all of which rose, except utilities (.SPLRCU). Bank of America (BAC.N) and UBS (UBS.N) now see the Fed funds rate target peaking at 5-5.25% in May compared to earlier forecasts of 5.25-5.5%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.62-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 3.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 17 new highs and 27 new lows.
SummarySummary Companies Powell steers clear of monetary policy outlookMicrosoft up on report of investment talksBoeing down on report of rating downgradeIndexes up: Dow 0.33%, S&P 0.42%, Nasdaq 0.70%Jan 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes edged higher on Tuesday, boosted by gains in Microsoft and Amazon, as investors assessed commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that steered clear of the monetary policy outlook. Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rose 1.2% after a report stated the software company was in talks to invest $10 bln in ChatGPT creator OpenAI. The U.S. central bank's independence from political influence is central to its ability to battle inflation, Powell said on Tuesday. The Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening to curb decades-high inflation hammered U.S. equities in 2022, with the three main indexes logging their steepest annual declines since 2008. The S&P index recorded 1 new 52-week high and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 14 new lows.
Powell is likely to say the Fed will keep raising rates until it sees inflation is under control, Matousek added. Money market bets pointed to a 77% chance of a 25-bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% in the Fed's upcoming policy meeting, with the terminal rate seen slightly below 5% by June. ET, Dow e-minis were down 162 points, or 0.48%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 19.5 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 76.75 points, or 0.69%. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY.O) gained 11% after the home goods retailer posted lower quarterly expenses driven by aggressive cost reduction initiatives. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Other rate-sensitive growth stocks like Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) gained about 1% each as U.S. Treasury yields declined. The gains pushed technology (.SPLRCT) to the top of the major S&P 500 sector indexes list. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) was up 3.6%, outperforming a 0.7% rise in its value peers (.IVX). Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 3.68-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.15-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 95 new highs and 14 new lows.
The declines made communication services (.SPLRCL), technology (.SPLRCT) and the retail index (.SPXRT) the top decliners among major S&P 500 sectors, down more than 1.2% each. Investors avoided riskier bets and fled to safer assets such as the U.S. dollar, pushing down the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) 20% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) nearly 34% this year. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) is down about 30% this year while the value index (.IVX) has dropped 7.9%, with investors preferring high dividend yielding sectors with steady earnings such as energy. The tech sector has shed 29.8% this year and is among the worst performing of the major S&P 500 sectors in 2022. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 29 new highs and 45 new lows.
SummarySummary Companies Wall St eyes first annual drop in four yearsU.S.-listed shares of Shaw Communications jumpFutures down: Dow 0.40%, S&P 0.59%, Nasdaq 0.94%Dec 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street was set to open lower on the final trading day of a roller-coaster year marked by aggressive interest-rate hikes to curb inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and recession fears. Investors avoided riskier bets and fled to safer assets such as the U.S. dollar, pushing down the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) 19% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) 33% this year. "(The) back half of 2023 is going to be better because I believe the Fed will stop raising interest rates. ET, Dow e-minis were down 132 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 22.75 points, or 0.59%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 104 points, or 0.94%. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
All the major S&P 500 sector indexes rose, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT) leading the pack with a near 3% rise. The Fed's aggressive rate hikes have hammered equities this year, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) shedding 19.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbling nearly 33%. The CBOE Volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", slipped, signaling an easing in investor anxiety. Tesla shares (TSLA.O) rose 8.3% after Chief Executive Elon Musk told staff they should not be "bothered by stock market craziness". The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 40 new highs and 117 new lows.
All the major S&P 500 sectoral indexes rose, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and information technology (.SPLRCT) up 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively. The U.S. Labor Department's report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Dec. 24. The report hinted at some softening in an otherwise tight labor market, bolstering hopes that the U.S. central bank would dial down its aggressive monetary policy stance. "Signs of the job market beginning to weaken is certainly apparent," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist, Spartan Capital Securities LLC. A strong labor market and resilient American economy have fueled worries that interest rates could stay higher for longer even though easing inflationary pressures keep alive hopes of smaller increases.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Dec. 24, the Labor Department said. The report suggested that the rapid interest rate hikes were starting to take a toll on the labor market, bolstering hopes that the U.S. central bank would dial down its aggressive stance. "Signs of the job market beginning to weaken is certainly apparent," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist, Spartan Capital Securities LLC. ET, Dow e-minis were up 172 points, or 0.52%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 29 points, or 0.76%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 116.25 points, or 1.08%. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 199.37 points, or 0.59%, to 33,745.69, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 18.78 points, or 0.48%, to 3,965.34 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 1.11 points, or 0.01%, to 11,146.06. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, retreating modestly after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation data that sparked hopes the central bank could temper its market-punishing rate hikes. "We are not likely to see any real evidence in terms of potentially declining wage pressure or inflation pressure for another couple of weeks.”Defensive groups led the way among S&P 500 sectors, with utilities (.SPLRCU) up 2%, real estate (.SPLRCR) rising 1.3% and healthcare (.SPXHC) 1.2% higher. The S&P 500 posted 8 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 62 new highs and 141 new lows. About 9.7 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.
The S&P 500 has retreated this week after a month-long rally following softer-than-expected inflation data that sparked hopes the central bank could temper its market-punishing rate hikes. “What is driving all equities of course is Fed policy and the gravitational force that rising interest rates have on the equity complex as a whole," Goodwin said. Energy fell 1.7%, most among S&P 500 sectors, as oil prices dropped, stemming from concern about weakened demand in China and further increases to U.S. interest rates. Gap Inc (GPS.N) shares rose about 5% after the company beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly sales and profit. The S&P 500 posted 7 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 49 new highs and 112 new lows.
Traders' bets of a 75-bps rate hike in December have gone up to 24.2% from 19.4% the previous week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) have lost 17% and nearly 29%, respectively, so far this year on worries that the aggressive rate hikes could push the economy into a recession. Among S&P 500 sectors, defensive stocks advanced on Friday, with utilities (.SPLRCU) and health (.SPXHC) rising 1.5% and 0.9%, respectively, and in the lead. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.19-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded seven new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 45 new highs and 96 new lows.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday the U.S. central bank needed to keep raising interest rates given that its tightening so far "had only limited effects on observed inflation". The comments, coming on the heels of strong retail sales data, dampened hopes of the Fed toning down its hawkish approach following softer-than-expected inflation reports. They are getting more comfortable with a generally higher interest rate regime," said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. ET, Dow e-minis were up 224 points, or 0.67%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 35.5 points, or 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 118.25 points, or 1.01%. Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.O) gained 4.0% after the chip tools maker forecast first-quarter revenue above estimates, on hopes of easing supply chain constraints.
"Initially when that (Bullard commentary) came out, you saw the market sell off and then there was some discussion about was he being over-reactive?" Equities had seen strong gains last week after a softer-than-expected inflation report boosted hopes of smaller rate hikes from the Fed. Most of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced, with defensive utilities (.SPLRCU) and real estate (.SPLRCR) leading gains, up about 1% each. The S&P index recorded six new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 34 new highs and 60 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed the need to continue raising rates, albeit at a slower pace. "The Fed is trying to make sure the market doesn't get too ahead of itself," said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. "They're trying to walk this rhetorical tightrope where in between meetings and big data points, they're reminding the market that they're still tightening." Traders are now pricing in 89% odds of a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Fed in December and see terminal rate at around 5% in June 2023. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 101 new lows.
Softer-than-expected inflation data in recent days had boosted expectations of smaller interest rate increases, but strong retail sales figures on Wednesday stoked fears that the Fed could keep tightening the monetary policy further. Several other Fed officials in recent days have also stressed on the need to continue raising interest rates, though at a slower pace. Wall Street closed the previous session lower as a grim outlook from Target Corp (TGT.N) sparked concerns about retailers heading into the crucial holiday season. ET, Dow e-minis were down 384 points, or 1.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 52.5 points, or 1.32%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 177.5 points, or 1.51%. U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd fell 2.1% after the Chinese e-commerce giant posted a smaller-than-expected rise in quarterly revenue.
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