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The June CPI report will show a continued drop in inflation, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee expects a soft June CPI report will push the Fed to cut rates more than two times this year. "It's going to be a week of reckoning, and I mean a reckoning of how people view inflation and the state of the economy." Lee is also bullish on small-cap stocks, which have badly lagged the broader stock market rally so far this year. AdvertisementJPMorgan's trading desk also expects a light June CPI report will boost stock prices.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , it's, What's, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, CPI
The Wednesday release of the April CPI report has the potential to shake up the stock market. A cool inflation report would bode well for interest rate cuts from the Fed and vice versa if it's hotter than expected. JPMorgan laid out six scenarios for April CPI and how the stock market could react to each. The coming inflation report is set to market-shaking because it will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might move forward with interest rate cuts. At the start of the year, the market was pricing in as many as seven interest rate cuts, but that has dwindled to just two rate cuts before year-end.
Persons: bode, , Defensives outperforming, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler, Tyler, Immaculate Disinflation Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, China PPI Locations: China
Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience. The note highlighted the unexpected strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March, which jumped above 50 for the first time since September 2022. A reading above 50 represents an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 represents a contraction. If a potential recession is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data, it would represent yet another year in which many economists were off in their recession predictions, though some have backed off their call for a recession following the resilience seen throughout 2023 even amid higher interest rates.
Persons: JPMorgan's Ellen Wang, Andrew Tyler, Wang, Tyler, Wang aren't Organizations: JPMorgan, Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve
A group of analysts from JPMorgan's trading desk say a new record high for S&P 500 "feels inevitable." The S&P 500 closed at 4,576.73 on Tuesday, less than 5% shy of its record closing level of 4,796.56 reached in January 2022. The fact earnings can beat expectations in an high-rate environment creates the argument for elevated valuations, in their view, and that could push the S&P 500 well beyond record highs. Anastasia Amoroso, iCapital's chief investment strategist, told Insider on Monday that all-time highs indeed look possible for the S&P 500 in the near-term. Steady multiples and fulfilled earnings expectations should be enough to justify the S&P 500 at 4,800 or above."
Persons: Andrew Tyler, there's, that's, it's, Anastasia Amoroso, Amoroso Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Economists expect the CPI report to show a year-over-year increase of 7.9%, a decline from September's 8.2% reading. The bank's trading desk ran a scenario analysis of where it expects the S&P 500 to trade depending on the CPI report. The least likely scenario happening, according to JPMorgan, is a huge beat or miss in the October CPI report. The October report "could be as much [as] a 'game changer' as 'hot' August CPI derailed S&P 500," he said. Whatever happens, investors should expect another bout of volatility heading into the end of the week in anticipation of tomorrow's CPI report.
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