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DeSantis Ramaswamy Haley DeSantis Ramaswamy Haley Pence Christie Scott Who Has Qualified for the Second Republican Presidential Debate? Pence Christie ScottAt least six candidates appear to have made the cut so far for the second Republican presidential debate on Sept. 27. Mr. Trump is the only candidate whose filings from July show he has already surpassed the donor requirements to attend the second debate. To determine whether candidates have met the polling thresholds, The Times analyzed Republican primary polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. Polling will ultimately be verified by the R.N.C., which is expected to announce the lineup within days of the second debate.
Persons: DeSantis Ramaswamy Haley DeSantis Ramaswamy Haley Pence Christie Scott Who, Pence Christie Scott, Donald J, Trump, Perry Johnson Organizations: Second Republican, Republican National Committee, Republican, New York Times, Times Locations: Michigan
Who Has Made It to the First Republican Debate So Far? At least seven candidates appear to have made the cut so far for the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23. To participate, each candidate must first satisfy fund-raising and polling criteria set by the Republican National Committee. But even though Mr. Trump is clearly the dominant Republican candidate so far, he has remained noncommittal about attending the debate and questioned his need to share the stage with candidates who lag far behind him in the polls. As for the remaining hopefuls, they have three weeks left to scrape together the necessary donors and polling support.
Persons: Scott Burgum Haley Ramaswamy DeSantis Christie Trump, Ramaswamy DeSantis Christie Trump, Donald J, Trump, Ron DeSantis, Florida Tim Scott Scott, Nikki Haley Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy, Chris Christie Christie, Doug Burgum Burgum, North Dakota Mike Pence Pence, Asa Hutchinson Hutchinson, Larry Elder Elder, Francis Suarez Suarez, Hurd Hurd, Pence, Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, Burgum Organizations: Republican National Committee, Republican, Trump Trump Former, North Dakota, Larry Elder Elder Conservative, Francis Suarez Suarez Mayor, Federal, Commission, Trump Locations: Milwaukee, Florida, South Carolina, U.N, New Jersey, North, Arkansas, Miami, Texas, North Dakota
The 2020 election presented another distinct challenge — it took place amid the pandemic. An assessment by The Times found that weighting its 2020 polls using recalled 2016 vote would have made them even more biased toward Mr. Biden. And a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research examining how 2020 polls could have been improved found that polls that weighted on recalled vote were no better than those that didn’t. Similarly, in 2022, weighting by recalled vote would have made Times/Siena polls less accurate. When weighted using recalled vote to 2020 election results, average error would have increased by a percentage point, and overall the polls would have been slightly biased toward Republicans.
Persons: Pollsters, Joe Biden, Biden Organizations: The Times, American Association for Public, Research Locations: Siena
Abortion pills have dominated headlines in the past week, but until recently, relatively few Americans were familiar with the concept of medication abortions, even as the use of pills like mifepristone has surpassed surgical procedures as the most common method to terminate pregnancies and as national support for abortion rights has grown in recent years. Two conflicting rulings on mifepristone, the first pill in a two-drug regimen used to terminate pregnancy, have put the long-term availability of the medication in limbo. The Justice Department has asked the Supreme Court to step in and ensure the drug’s accessibility while it pursues an appeal. About one in three Americans said they had heard of mifepristone or a medication abortion in a January survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan research group that focuses on health issues. But that share is most likely growing, Ashley Kirzinger, the organization’s director of survey methodology, said.
Tracking the most competitive statesEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive races for Senate control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. Alaska is expected to be won by one of the two Republicans leading the vote count in that state.
Tracking the most competitive districtsEach party needs to win a share of the most competitive districts for House control. The win targets below are based on what each party needs for control after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily. There is one race in a district rated competitive prior to the election that has not yet been called.
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