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After getting battered for most of 2023, emerging market (EM) currencies have made modest gains against the dollar after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week and data suggested the U.S. economy might finally be slowing. That dollar weakening trend was likely to hold in the near-term as a majority of analysts in the Nov. 3-7 Reuters poll expected the dollar to trade lower by year-end. "So it's difficult to see the EM currencies recoup some of the sharp losses that we've seen in the last few months. Although EM currencies gained at the beginning of 2023 and investors brimmed with positivity after China's post-COVID reopening, economic performance in the world's second largest economy has been mostly underwhelming. "Easier Fed monetary policy should also take some pressure off select emerging market currencies in the second half of next year," noted Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: We've, Mitul Kotecha, we've, it's, Nick Bennenbroek, Devayani Sathyan, Anant Chandak, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Mark Potter Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, FX, Asia, Barclays, South Korean, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, U.S, Brazilian, Wells Fargo

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ Indian inflation seen easing to 5.50% in Sept on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Rises in food prices, which make up about half the consumer price index (CPI), continue to cool from recent peaks after the Indian government enacted a series of measures to boost supply. "Having said that, the persistent part of the food inflation problem remains there, which is cereals, pulses and spices, and I think the RBI can't do much about it anyway." Rising crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation elevated in the world's third-largest oil importer. Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday to trade around $90 a barrel. "Oil prices ... are likely to remain high over the remainder of the year on global supply concerns," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.

Persons: Amit Dave, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, CPI, ANZ Research, Oxford, Inflation, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, BENGALURU

☆ Undeterred by dollar's renewed strength, analysts see weakness ahead: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Adam Cole, the chief currency strategist at RBC, says he is biased toward a stronger dollar but admits the prevailing foreign exchange view in markets remains a tough nut to crack. "If you look at consensus forecasts, the consensus has been dollar negative for five years now and it hasn't worked," Cole said. One notable outlier among major central banks is the Bank of Japan, which has made the yen one of the worst-performing major currencies this year, down over 13%. (For other stories from the October Reuters foreign exchange poll:)Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling by Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Adam Cole, hasn't, Cole, Jane Foley, Rabobank's Foley, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Purujit Arun, Pranoy Menon, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Treasury, RBC, U.S, Futures, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Reuters, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. Despite inflation in Thailand edging up slightly to 0.88% in August, it remained below the central bank's 1-3% target range for a fourth consecutive month, suggesting little need for the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to continue hiking. A strong majority of economists in a Sept. 18-22 poll, 21 of 27, expected the BOT to keep its benchmark one-day repurchase rate (THCBIR=ECI) at 2.25% on Wednesday. None expected the central bank to raise interest rates at the following meeting in November. Median forecasts showed interest rates remaining at 2.25% through next year.

Persons: Jorge Silva, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, Lavanya Venkateswaran, Aris, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani Sathyan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Bank of Thailand, Aris Dacanay, HSBC, Thomson Locations: Bank of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand, BENGALURU, China, ASEAN

☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

☆ RBA to hold rates at 4.10% on Tuesday, but will hike again next quarter: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Two respondents in the Aug 30-Sept 1 poll expected a 25 basis point (bps) hike. Among major local banks, ANZ, CBA, and Westpac expected rates to remain unchanged until at least end-2023, while NAB predicted one more rate hike to 4.35% in November. Three economists expected two more 25 bps hikes in the fourth quarter. While BlackRock and Deutsche Bank expected hikes in November and December, Citi expected moves in October and November. "We think they'll maintain the tightening bias and there may be further risk of a rate hike later in the year," said Benjamin Picton, senior strategist at Rabobank.

Persons: Daniel Munoz, Taylor Nugent, Michele Bullock's, Benjamin Picton, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Anant Chandak, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, NAB, ANZ, CBA, Westpac, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ New Zealand house prices to rise again on supply shortage, rate cut hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 30 (Reuters) - New Zealand house prices are forecast to rise again next year due to an ongoing supply shortage and expectations for interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll of property market analysts. That is short of a roughly 20% correction most property analysts predicted in May following a pandemic-era boom that boosted prices by more than 40%. Prices have started to rise again on returning demand meeting limited available supply. New Zealand house prices were expected to decline 4.8% this year, the latest Reuters poll of 11 property market analysts taken Aug. 14-28 showed. Average property prices were then expected to rise 5.0% and 6.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, an upgrade from 3.4% and 5.0% in the previous poll.

Persons: Miles Workman, homebuyers, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ANZ, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Bengaluru

☆ China's factory activity likely extended declines in August - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

An employee works on the production line of Nio electric vehicles at a JAC-NIO manufacturing plant in Hefei, Anhui province, China August 28, 2022. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Aug 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a fifth straight month in August, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as weak demand threatens recovery prospects in the world's second-largest economy and pressures officials to prop up growth. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis while below that signals contraction. "ASEAN, China's top trading partner, has also decreased to a nearly two-year low of 50.8." The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Thursday.

Persons: Taimur Baig, Joe Cash, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Manufacturing, DBS, ASEAN, PMI, Thomson Locations: Hefei, Anhui province, China, Rights BEIJING, Bengaluru

Men watch a screen displaying the Sensex results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - India stocks will trade only modestly higher at year-end, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who said a correction was likely before then, citing tightening global financial conditions as a risk. Driven by positive foreign and domestic investment inflows, the benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time high of 67,619.2 on July 20, up around 18% from the year's low of 57,084.9 set only four months earlier. Over 70% of analysts who answered an additional question, 21 of 29, said a correction - a decline of 10% or more - in the Indian equity market was likely by year-end, including five who said it was highly likely. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Polling by Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Rajat Agarwal, Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Monday's, Asia, U.S

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoBEIJING, Aug 7 (Reuters) - China's exports likely contracted further in July, as manufacturers in the world's second-largest economy struggled for buyers in markets grappling with high inflation and rising interest rates, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Imports are expected to have shrunk by 5.0%, after a fall of 6.8% in June, reflecting slightly improved domestic demand. The median estimate in the poll indicated only marginal change in China's trade surplus, with analysts predicting it will come in at $70.60 billion, compared with 70.62 billion in June. China's trade data will be released on Tuesday.

Persons: Aly, Joe Cash, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Beijing, outflows, Bengaluru

BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now. Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter. Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.

Persons: Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ Indian factory growth eased for second month in July, but kept healthy pace
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Growth in India's manufacturing activity eased in July for a second month, with some moderation in output and new orders, although the pace of expansion remained healthy, a private business survey showed on Tuesday. The sector has remained resilient despite declines in manufacturing activity in other major producers, suggesting Asia's third-largest economy is still on robust footing. "The Indian manufacturing sector showed little sign of losing growth momentum in July as production lines continued to motor on the back of strong new order growth." New orders remained robust in July, and while output growth moderated to a three-month low it remained strong. With input prices rising at the quickest pace since October, output prices also rose, but at a slower pace compared with the previous month, highlighting uncertainty regarding inflation.

Persons: Andrew Harker, Harker, Anant Chandak, Kim Coghill Organizations: Manufacturing, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of India

☆ BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% on Thursday, rate cut call pushed to 2024, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummaryCompanies BOK to hold base rate at 3.50% at July 13 meetingBENGALURU, July 11 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea (BOK) will keep its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% on Thursday and for the rest of the year as inflation continued to ease, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, but rate cut forecasts were pushed back by a quarter to early 2024. Median forecasts showed interest rates would remain on hold until the end of this year, followed by a 25 basis-point cut in the first quarter of 2024. In a May poll the quarter percentage-point cut was expected to come by end-2023. But a rate cut will depend on how quickly inflation falls. The survey also predicted South Korea's economy would grow 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2024, the same as the previous survey.

Persons: BOK, Irene Cheung, Anant Chandak, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Jonathan Cable, Hari Kishan, Jan Harvey Organizations: Bank of Korea, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, ANZ, U.S . Fed, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, South Korea, Asia

[1/2] A worker works on a production line at a factory of a ship equipments manufacturer, in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 2, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSBEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a marginally slower pace, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring the need for further policy stimulus to counter weak demand at home and abroad. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. The highest reading in the poll was 49.7, still short of breaking into expansion territory, while the lowest reading was 48.0.

Persons: Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Madhumita Gokhale, Anant Chandak, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Thomson Locations: Nantong, Jiangsu province, China, REUTERS BEIJING, Tianjin, Bengaluru

☆ Philippine central bank on hold for rest of year, cut in early 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

All 24 economists polled June 13-19 forecast the BSP will hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate (PHCBIR=ECI) at 6.25% at its policy meeting on June 22. A strong majority of respondents, 14 of 17, forecast rates will stay at 6.25% for the rest of the year with the remaining three predicting a rate cut by end-2023. The central bank, which had previously closely followed the U.S. Federal Reserve in hiking interest rates, is now charting a distinct course. "In later meetings if the Fed hikes, the BSP is likely to stay on hold. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% last week but signaled it may still hike by as much as half of a percentage point by end-2023.

Persons: Eloisa Lopez, Felipe Medalla, Francisco Dakila Jr, Shreya, Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, ng Pilipinas, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Barclays, BSP, Thomson Locations: Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines, BENGALURU, Philippine

☆ Bank Indonesia to hold key rate at 5.75% for rest of year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

All 34 economists in the June 14-19 Reuters poll expected the central bank to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) at the conclusion of its June 21-22 meeting. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 15 of 23, said the key policy rate would remain at that level for the rest of 2023, with eight economists expecting a rate cut this year. "Bank Indonesia was one of the first central banks in the region to pause its tightening cycle earlier this year. Mapa added BI would "only consider cutting policy rates should global central banks opt to ease monetary policy." Median forecasts showed a 25-basis-point rate cut to 5.50% in the first quarter of 2024, a slight downgrade from the 50-basis-point cut expected in a May poll.

Persons: Nicholas Mapa, Khoon Goh, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Reuters, " Bank Indonesia, ING, Mapa, U.S, Fed, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia

The referendum, which comes amid a wider reckoning over race relations, proposes to change the constitution and establish an advisory body called the Indigenous Voice to Parliament to give Indigenous Australians a direct say in policies that affect them. Five of those polled were funding or planned to fund the "Yes" campaign, while none endorsed nor were contributing to "No". Commonwealth Bank told Reuters it plans to fund the "Yes" campaign and had hosted two panel discussions with Indigenous speakers. Rio Tinto, which faced criticism in 2020 for destroying Indigenous rock shelters, said the Voice would bring an "additional lens" to government decision-making. Aurora Milroy, a lecturer in Indigenous affairs at the University of Western Australia, said supporting the Voice was easy publicity for companies.

Persons: Rita Wright, Loren Elliott, Anthony Albanese, Intifar Chowdhury, Albanese, Meg O'Neill, Ross Piper, Baker McKenzie, Thomas Mayo, Kate Gillingham, Peter Dutton, Coles, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Aurora Milroy, Byron Kaye, Praveen Menon, Melanie Burton, David Crawshaw, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai Organizations: Australian, REUTERS, Australia's, BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside Energy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Labor, Voice, National, Nine Entertainment, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank, Ethical Investment, Qantas, Australian Financial, Liberal, Fair Australia, Miners, Fortescue Metals, University of Western, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Rio, Western Australia, Woodside, Queensland, University of Western Australia, Melbourne

☆ Japan will stop yen decline beyond USD/JPY 145, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, June 15 (Reuters) - Japan's government and central bank will act to stop the yen's decline if it depreciates to the 145 per U.S. dollar level, more than half of economists polled by Reuters said. Fifteen of 28 economists (54%) said the government and the BOJ will take steps such as issuing a warning or intervening into the currency market once the yen weakens beyond 145 per greenback, the June 8-13 poll found. In a separate question on the weak yen's impact on BOJ policy, nine economists (31%) said the central bank's decisions could be swayed by a yen depreciation beyond 145 per dollar. In the poll, all but one - JP Morgan - out of 28 economists corroborated the view, citing an improved bond market functionality and Governor Kazuo Ueda's accommodative remarks so far. BOJ's Ueda has said an end to easy policy would depend on the economy achieving 2% inflation coupled with pay growth.

Persons: Harumi Taguchi, Morgan, Kazuo Ueda's accommodative, Hiroshi Watanabe, BOJ's Ueda, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro Komiya, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, P, Financial Services Agency, Sony Financial Group, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

The outlook was little changed for Britain and in India where prices have kept rising. Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL, said strong wage gains over the past year had kept many housing markets resilient despite significantly higher borrowing costs. Peak-to-trough falls for nearly all housing markets surveyed were downgraded from the March poll. British and U.S. house prices were expected to fall around 3% and Australia's to be flat for the full year 2023. Average house prices are expected to rise about 6% in India.

Persons: Mike Blake, Goldman Sachs, Adam Challis, hasn't, Hari Kishan, Prerana Bhat, Jonathan Cable, Anant Chandak, Sarupya Ganguly, Indradip Ghosh, Vivek Mishra, Milounee, Susobhan Sarkar, Devayani, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ed Osmond Organizations: KB, REUTERS, EMEA, Thomson Locations: Valley Center , California, U.S, BENGALURU, Canada, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, India, JLL

☆ POLL RBA to hike rates further this year, say economists in snap poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On May 2, the RBA startled economists and financial markets with a hike. Our expectation is that the final rate hike occurs in August. Over 85% of respondents, 25 of 29, expected no hike from the central bank at its June 6 meeting, while four predicted a 25 basis point hike. Among major local banks, only ANZ forecast a 25 basis point hike in Q3 while Westpac and CBA predicted an extended pause. Median forecasts showed the cash rate remaining at 4.10% until year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in an April poll.

☆ India April factory activity hits 4-month high on robust demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, May 1 (Reuters) - India's factory activity expanded at its quickest pace in four months in April, driven by solid growth in new orders and output, a private survey showed on Monday, signaling resilient demand and an encouraging outlook. The survey results suggest India will continue to be one of the fastest-growing major economies despite slowing global growth that has undermined momentum across several other countries. "Reflecting a robust and quicker expansion in new orders, production growth took another step forward in April. Besides seeing the strongest inflow of new work in 2023 so far, capacities were expanded through job creation, input buying was lifted." Foreign demand also expanded at the fastest pace in four months in April and optimism improved.

BEIJING, April 12 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports likely extended their declines in March, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as weakening global demand squeezed factory supply chains and order books. Such a result would add to policymakers' concerns about China's fragile economic recovery. Exports have struggled in the months following China's decision to drop its COVID curbs in December, when the world's second-largest economy re-opened. Other Asian exporters such as South Korea and Vietnam have also seen exports decline in the first few months of 2023. Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Madhumita Gokhale and Anant Chandak; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

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