The 2020 election presented another distinct challenge — it took place amid the pandemic.
An assessment by The Times found that weighting its 2020 polls using recalled 2016 vote would have made them even more biased toward Mr. Biden.
And a report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research examining how 2020 polls could have been improved found that polls that weighted on recalled vote were no better than those that didn’t.
Similarly, in 2022, weighting by recalled vote would have made Times/Siena polls less accurate.
When weighted using recalled vote to 2020 election results, average error would have increased by a percentage point, and overall the polls would have been slightly biased toward Republicans.
Persons:
Pollsters, Joe Biden, Biden
Organizations:
The Times, American Association for Public, Research
Locations:
Siena