The attack that killed six people on a busy Istanbul street on Sunday has brought national security back on the political agenda. With Turkey quick to accuse Syria-based Kurdish militants for the latest attack, analysts say Erdogan may now press for another cross-border campaign into northern Syria after three such incursions since 2016. Were Sunday's attack followed by more, Peker expected outcomes including a rapid escalation of "counter-terrorism operations, particularly against the PKK and the YPG". The YPG, espousing the same ideology as the PKK, has established control over swathes of northern Syria since war began there in 2011. In a November re-run - following that spate of violence and two major Islamic State bomb attacks - AK Party won comfortably.

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