Russia faces a crisis whether it continues the war or not, economist Alexander Mertens says. War spending has been a major boost to Moscow's GDP growth and wealth, and ending the war will be tricky. If Russia continues the war, the economy looks on track for a "severe recession" and long-running stagnation, Mertens said. "The current state of the Russian economy is far from critical but it does present Putin with a dilemma. The Russian economy is not yet close to collapse, but it is increasingly dependent on wartime conditions and faces growing risks of overheating."

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Persons: Alexander Mertens, —, Vladimir Putin, Mertens, Merten, Putin, That's Organizations: Service, Kyiv's International Institute of Business, Ukraine, Atlantic Council, Russian National Welfare Fund, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukrainian, Ukraine