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SummarySummary Companies Smaller-than-expected build in U.S. crude stocksBroader markets weighed by economic slowdown concernsU.S. business activity contracts in JanuaryOPEC+ unlikely to tweak oil policy at Feb. 1 meetingBENGALURU, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday, after government data showed a smaller-than-anticipated build in U.S. crude inventories, countering weak economic data from Tuesday. Brent crude was up 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $86.38 a barrel by 1:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT) after declining 2.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 49 cents, or 0.6%, to $80.62 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. On Wednesday, oil prices and broader financial markets were weighed down by data published on Tuesday showing U.S. business activity contracted in January for the seventh-straight month, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.
Oil slips as U.S. inventory rise offsets China hopes
  + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The price of crude has rallied this year on the ending of China's COVID controls and hopes that the rise in U.S. interest rates will soon taper off. Still, some analysts said the speed of China's actual demand rebound looks uncertain. "Whether or not oil prices can resume their march higher will depend on how quickly China's crude demand bounces back this quarter," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, five OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.52 a barrel, after a 1.8% drop on Tuesday. U.S. crude inventories (USOILC=ECI) rose by 533,000 barrels in the last week to 448.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. "If we look at crude, the increase in stocks was much smaller-than-anticipated, and that is raising concerns about tightness in supply. An OPEC+ panel is likely to endorse the group's current policy at a Feb. 1 meeting, OPEC+ sources said on Tuesday. OPEC+ in October decided to trim output by 2 million barrels per day from November through 2023 on a weaker economic outlook.
Tehran's oil exports have been limited since former U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018 exited a 2015 nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions aimed at curbing oil exports and the associated revenue to Iran's government. "In comparison to the Trump administration, there hasn't been any serious crackdown or action against Iran's oil exports," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB. The Iranian oil ministry did not respond to a request for comment on exports. MORE TO CHINAThere is no definitive figure for Iranian oil exports and estimates often fall into a wide range. According to another analyst, Vortexa, China's December imports of Iranian oil hit a new record of 1.2 million bpd, up 130% from a year earlier.
Oil rises on China demand hopes, U.S. inflation in focus
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil rose about 1% on Thursday supported by optimism over China's demand outlook and hopes that upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian oil supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason Neely and Susan FentonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Summary China reopening leads to optimism demand will riseLooming EU ban on Russian oil products imports in focusComing up: U.S. CPI data, 1330 GMTLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Oil steadied on Thursday as optimism over China's demand outlook was tempered by caution over whether upcoming inflation data from the United States will point to a slower increase in interest rates. Top oil importer China is reopening its economy after the end of strict COVID-19 curbs, boosting optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023. The market is also bracing for an additional curb on Russian supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia on Feb. 5 could be more disruptive than the EU ban on seaborne imports of crude oil from Russia implemented in December 2022. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Emily Chow; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.
Oil jumps 3% on demand optimism as China borders reopen
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"If recession is avoided, global oil demand and demand growth will remain resilient," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, adding that developments in China were the main reason for Monday's gains. "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," he said. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. ,Reporting by Alex Lawler Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Jeslyn Lerh Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Oil set to end turbulent 2022 with second annual gain
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FILE PHOTO: A view shows Chao Xing tanker at the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia August 12, 2022. “Next year is set to be another year of uncertainty, with plenty of volatility.”On Friday, Brent crude was up 32 cents, or 0.4%, to $83.78 a barrel by 0915 GMT. So I think oil prices may fall to $60 next year,” he said. Oil’s fall in the second half of 2022 came as central banks hiked interest rates to fight inflation, boosting the U.S. dollar. 2 consumer in 2022 posted its first drop in oil demand for years.
Oil hits three-week high as China eases COVID curbs
  + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies and tends to support risk assets. Oil also drew support from worries over supply disruption because of winter storms in the United States, said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities. "But the U.S. weather is forecast to improve this week, which means the rally may not last too long," he said. Concern over a possible production cut by Russia also provided price support. Russia might cut oil output by 5% to 7% in early 2023 as it responds to price caps, the RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying on Friday.
China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but said it plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. Brent crude gained 76 cents to settle at $79.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 90 cents to $75.19. Oil surged toward its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. It has since unwound most of this year's gains as supply concerns were edged out by recession fears. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
Oil rises on hopes for China's economy
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but said it plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. "There is no doubt that demand is being adversely influenced," said Naeem Aslam, analyst at brokerage Avatrade. Brent crude gained 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $79.69 a barrel by 1248 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 85 cents, or 1.1%, to $75.14. Oil surged towards its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
Oil bounces as China demand hopes offset recession fears
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. Brent crude gained 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $79.41 a barrel by 1100 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.59. Oil surged towards its record high of $147 a barrel earlier in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine. It has since unwound most of this year's gains as supply concerns were edged out by recession fears, which remain a drag on prices. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the new year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
SummarySummary Companies Reopening of Chinese economy buoys demand hopesRising interest rates and recession fears weighU.S. to begin purchases for strategic reserveLONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after tumbling by more than $2 a barrel in the previous session as optimism over the Chinese economy outweighed concern over a global recession. China, the world's top crude oil importer, is experiencing its first of three expected waves of COVID-19 cases after Beijing relaxed mobility restrictions but plans to step up support for the economy in 2023. Despite a surge in COVID cases, optimism over the reopening of the Chinese economy and its accommodative policy improve oil's demand outlook, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised interest rates last week and promised more. "The prospect of further rate rises will hit economic growth in the New Year and in doing so curb demand for oil," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
OPEC's U.S. shale worries subside as it cuts forecast
  + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
On Tuesday, OPEC trimmed its forecast for 2023 growth in U.S. tight oil, another term for shale, to 780,000 barrels per day. The group kept its 2022 forecast unchanged at 590,000 bpd, having steadily cut the figure from 880,000 bpd in July. from OPEC's monthly oil market reportU.S. shale oil drillers over the last two decades helped to turn the United States into the world's largest producer. OPEC+ in October made its biggest output cut since the pandemic took hold in 2020. Rapid growth in shale has previously caused problems for OPEC, as when it helped to create a supply glut during 2014-2016.
China on Wednesday announced the most sweeping changes to its resolute anti-COVID regime since the pandemic began, while at least 20 oil tankers faced delays in crossing to the Mediterranean from Russia's Black Sea ports. Western officials were in talks with Turkish counterparts to resolve the tanker queues, a British Treasury official said on Wednesday, after the G7 and European Union rolled out new the restrictions on Dec. 5 aimed at Russian oil exports. The queues suggest that "available supply from the Black Sea is already affected by the punitive measure," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Concerns of economic slowdown, weakening fuel demand and the prospect of more interest rate hikes in the United States weighed. While U.S. crude inventories fell last week, gasoline and distillate inventories surged, adding to concern about easing demand.
Warnings from big U.S. banks about a likely recession next year weighed, and supported the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to dampen appetite for risk assets. Fears were easing that the price cap on Russian crude could cause a supply shock. "Clearly, investors are not worried the least about any potential supply shortage that might be the result of the price cap and the EU ban on Russian oil sales." In focus is the latest U.S. supply report from the Energy Information Administration due at 1530 GMT and whether it confirms the large decline in crude stocks.
Summary OPEC+ to begin virtual talks at 1100 GMTNo discussions of Russian price cap so far - delegatesWill keep existing cuts in placeLONDON/DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is poised to stick to its oil output targets when it meets on Sunday, four OPEC+ sources said as the alliance gathers after the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed a price cap on Russian oil. Washington accused the group and one of its leaders, Saudi Arabia, of siding with Russia despite Moscow's war in Ukraine. OPEC+ argued it had cut output because of a weaker economic outlook. OPEC met virtually on Saturday without Russia and allies and did not discuss the Russian price cap, sources have said. OPEC+ begins talks at 1100 GMT with a meeting of the advisory Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) panel, followed by the full ministerial conference.
Summary No discussions of Russian price cap so far - delegatesOil prices have come under pressure from weak economyLONDON/DUBAI, Dec 4 (Reuters) - OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets at a meeting on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters. The decision comes two days after the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed a price cap on Russian oil. Oil prices have declined since October due to slower Chinese and global growth and higher interest rates. On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in a move to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue while keeping Russian oil flowing to global markets. Moscow said it would not sell its oil under the cap and was analysing how to respond.
On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil in a move to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue while keeping Russian oil flowing to global markets. OPEC virtually met on Saturday without allies such as Russia and discussed mostly administrative matters, sources said. The ministers did not discuss the Russian price cap. Five OPEC+ delegates said on Saturday the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday would likely approve a policy rollover. On Friday, two separate OPEC+ sources said a further output cut was not completely off the table given concern about economic growth and demand.
"It is unlikely there will be any change to the policy," an OPEC+ source said. Talks begin on Saturday when OPEC ministers hold a virtual meeting at 1100 GMT. Some OPEC+ delegates and analysts are not ruling out a surprise at Sunday's meeting. JPMorgan, in a report this week, said OPEC+ was likely to hold the line at the meeting while leaving the door open to a cut of more than 500,000 bpd if demand deteriorates further. Reporting by Alex Lawler, Maha El Dahan, Ahmad Ghaddar and Rowena Edwards; Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, five OPEC+ sources said, although two sources said an additional production cut was also likely to be considered to bolster prices that have slid due to fears of an economic slowdown. Five OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the Sunday meeting would most likely roll over existing policy. Two more sources said the group could discuss another output cut, although neither thought another cut was highly likely. Top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia on Nov. 21 said OPEC+ was sticking with output cuts and could take further measures to balance the market. The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iraq met on Thursday and stressed the importance of adhering to OPEC+ output cuts that last until the end of 2023, the Saudi energy ministry said in a statement on Friday.
NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The global oil market is signaling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months. On Dec. 5, a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, along with a plan by the G7 nations to force shippers to comply with a price cap on Russian oil sales. In the last week, crude futures contracts have flipped in and out of contango, where the prompt price of a commodity is lower than the future price, which suggests short-term weakness. Offers of Angolan and other West African crude oil to China, a main customer, are a barometer of physical crude demand from the country. In addition, European refiners have found themselves oversupplied with crude as an expected shortage owing to the looming EU ban on Russian oil has yet to materialise.
Oil rises as Saudi comments outweigh recession concerns
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"Crude oil prices are trying to recover their losses," said Avatrade analyst Naeem Aslam. "That Saudi Arabia has denied there was any discussion about an increase in oil supply with OPEC and its allies has supported the market today." On Dec. 5. a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, as is a G7 plan that will allow shipping services providers to help to export Russian oil, but only at enforced low prices. Concerns over oil demand in the face of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and China's strict COVID lockdown policies limited the upside. Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola and Isabel Kua Editing by David GoodmanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The Wall Street Journal earlier on Monday reported an output increase of 500,000 barrels per day was under discussion for the next meeting of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on Dec. 4. Oil prices, which had slid more than 5% to below $83 a barrel after the Wall Street Journal report , pared losses following the minister's comments. Last month, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to reduce output targets sharply. It would be unusual for the group to increase production at a time of declining prices and growing concern about the economic outlook. Prince Abdulaziz was also quoted as saying OPEC+ was ready to reduce output further if needed.
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