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☆ Sticky prices in services sector could delay rate cuts, Bank for International Settlements says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSticky prices in services sector could delay rate cuts, Bank for International Settlements saysAgustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, discusses interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic landscape, commercial real estate and the outlook for banks in 2024.

Persons: Agustín Carstens Organizations: Bank for International

☆ Fed and other banks to make 'major progress' on rates this year, BIS chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.

Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

☆ BIS' Carstens: too early to say how new war will impact global outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel

☆ Legal fog over central bank digital currencies "unacceptable", BIS warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Agustin Carstens leaves after G-20 finance ministers and central banks governors family photo during the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2018. His warning comes as central banks around the world push ahead with central bank digital currency (CBDC) development in a bid to make money more high tech and keep up with the features now offered by cryptocurrencies. Some 11 countries have already launched them and next month the European Central Bank is expected to receive the green light to start work on a digital euro. Carstens, whose organisation is overseeing much of the global test work, said central banks have a mandate to meet public demands and have also made significant investments into CBDCs. "It is simply unacceptable that unclear or outdated legal frameworks could hinder their deployment," added Carstens, the former governor of the Mexico's central bank.

Persons: Agustin Carstens, Yuri Gripas, Marc Jones, Josie Kao Organizations: IMF, Bank, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, cryptocurrencies, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Economy at critical juncture in inflation fight: central-bank body
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ Central bank body BIS warns world economy at critical juncture in inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called for more interest rate hikes in its 2023 annual report, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesThe world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said. Banking crisesThe Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Aaron Chown, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ World economy at critical juncture in inflation fight, central-bank body warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". "Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes," the BIS said. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

☆ Why chaos in Russia could spell trouble for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

On Saturday, a fellow global energy power, Qatar, expressed “great concern” about the situation in Russia. Any meaningful loss of Russian energy would force China and India to compete with Western nations for supplies from other producers. Libya and Venezuela provide cautionary tales of how civil war and internal political strife can savage energy exports. At just under 10 million barrels per day, it produces about 10% of global crude oil demand. It took a long time for the Russian oil industry to recover from that.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, “ Putin, ”, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Richard Bronze, Matt Smith, Kpler, —, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Brent, Moscow, “, Sonnenfeld, — Sarah Diab, Sharon Braithwaite, Alexandra Peers, Ramishah Organizations: London CNN —, ” Yale, CNN, Western, Energy, Bank for International, BIS, US Energy Information Agency, Council, Foreign Relations Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Russia, China, India, Qatar, Americas, Europe, United States, Basel, Asia, Venezuela, Libya, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Soviet Union, London, New York

☆ Inflation fight risks central banks' credibility and autonomy, BIS warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - The credibility and independence of central banks around the world is at risk if stubbornly-high global inflation rates are not bought under control, the head of the Bank for International Settlements has warned. Speaking in Brazil, Agustín Carstens, the bank's general manager, said a tough response to inflation was fundamental for maintaining trust in central banks' ability to keep economies on an even keel. "Otherwise, the credibility of monetary policy, and the autonomous central banks responsible for implementing it, will be called into question." Turning back to the inflation battle, he said the process could run into obstacles, particularly as policymakers try to get it back to their preferred sweet spot, which is around 2% for the Fed and other major central banks. "Over the coming years, monetary policy should focus squarely on bringing inflation back to levels consistent with central bank objectives".

☆ Crypto lost the battle to be an alternative to fiat money after FTX collapse, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Agustin Carstens, the head of the Bank for International Settlements, said crypto is not a replacement for fiat currencies. "Only the legal, historical infrastructure behind central banks can give great credibility [to money]," the economist told Bloomberg. Crypto regulation, Carstens said, will likely strengthen after FTX's catastrophic downfall. Regulation, Carstens added, will likely strengthen because of the fallout. "Only the legal, historical infrastructure behind central banks can give great credibility [to money]," per Carstens, adding that crypto can really only exist "under certain conditions."

☆ Re-think needed to regulate Big Tech in finance, says BIS' Carstens
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - A "re-think" is needed on how to directly regulate activities of Big Tech companies in financial services given their size and influence, Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens said in Wednesday. "Without a doubt, a regulatory re-think is warranted, and we need a new path to follow. One that considers the key role of data in big techs’ DNA-based business model. One that strikes the right balance between benefits and risks," Carstens said in a speech. Reporting by Huw Jones; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

EARLY WARNING SIGNSAfter years of tame inflation, Fed officials and other central bankers say they have faced a chain of disruptive events beyond their control ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war. The central bank has made conservative estimates on inflation despite Russia cutting gas supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Even as some economists say an inflation peak could now be in sight, central bankers remain far from taming inflation. The concern among some central bankers is that politicians will respond by raising public spending and so aggravate the inflation pressure that their rate-hike cure is intended to heal. If that were to happen, central bankers “would have to reverse course to prevent the debt market from becoming more disorderly," Goodhart told Reuters.

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