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India's annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) rose sharply to 7.44% in July from 4.87% the previous month. Reuters Graphics"The spurt in CPI inflation in July 2023 was on expected lines, however, 7.44% retail inflation was totally unexpected," said Devendra Pant, economist at India Ratings. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, hit a staggering 11.51% in June as compared with 4.49% in June. Retail food inflation was at its highest since January 2020. Even a moderate rise in food inflation tends to anger voters and Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ Research, said further measures may be required from the government.
Persons: Devendra Pant, Research's Gaura Sen Gupta, Pant, Narendra Modi's, Dhiraj Nim, Nikunj Ohri, Chizu Nomiyama, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, DELHI, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, ANZ Research, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India
Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, moderated to 2.91% in May against 3.84% in April. "Food inflation benefited from a sequential fall in the prices of fruits and oils," said Suvodeep Rakshit, economist at Kotak Institutional Equities. Core inflation, which had been easing after being a key concerns for months, remained below 6% for a third consecutive month. According to two economists' estimates, core inflation was 5.02% in May, compared with 5.2% in April. The Indian government does not release figures of core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices.
Persons: Suvodeep Rakshit, Devendra Kumar Pant, Nikunj Ohri, Aftab Ahmed, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Reuters, El, Thomson Locations: DELHI, Asia, India
The government uses the estimates as a basis for its growth and fiscal projections for the next budget due on Feb. 1. Since September, economists have been cutting their 2022/23 growth projections to around 7% due to slowing exports and risks of high inflation crimping purchasing power. India's nominal growth, which includes inflation, is projected to be at 15.4% for 2022/23, up from an earlier 11.1% estimate. "The nominal GDP growth is higher, implying that the government's fiscal deficit target will be achieved," said Sabnavis. "Buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period," Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA.
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