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☆ We're not expecting any rate cuts in Australia until the end of 2024, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're not expecting any rate cuts in Australia until the end of 2024, economist saysAdelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ, discusses the country's economic outlook and says interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Persons: We're, Adelaide Timbrell Organizations: ANZ Locations: Australia

☆ Slowing Australia Q2 inflation lessens rate hike pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the first quarter, inflation was at 1.4%. That was balanced by a sharp fall in goods inflation, which slowed to an annual rate of 5.8% from 7.6% the quarter before. Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ, said both headline and trimmed mean inflation are tracking below the RBA's forecast for the second quarter. "(The data) highlight that a 4.1% cash rate may be restrictive enough to bring inflation down. The RBA has warned that some further tightening may be required to bring inflation to heel.

Persons: Robert Carnell, Carnell, Adelaide Timbrell, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, ING, ANZ, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

March 14 (Reuters) - Australia's economic health will be its central bank's compass for plotting the course of rate hikes, as stringent regulation insulates its banking sector from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O), analysts at top domestic banks said. Analysts at three of the top four lenders - Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), and ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) - continue to expect the RBA to deliver its 11th consecutive rate hike next month. 0#RBAWATCH"The Australian domestic fundamentals remain consistent with further tightening from the RBA," Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ Research said. Australian banking sector, while not immune to the collapse of SVB, is in a "more insulated" position, Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB said. Globally, banking stocks have taken a hit from the collapse of SVB despite of assurances from U.S. authorities, prompting a reassessment of interest rate expectations.

☆ Australia house prices forecast to slump 16% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australian house prices have nearly doubled since the financial crisis but that boom has led to a build-up of household debt that could become a risk to financial stability. Although average house prices have fallen 6.5% since a peak late last year, with losses spreading to every state capital, they are still well above pre-pandemic levels. "We expect a peak to trough housing fall of 15-20% and this should be considered an orderly descent," said Adelaide Timbrell, senior economist at ANZ. While lower house prices would help improve affordability, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for recent homeowners, watching their capital decline and facing higher repayments as interest rates rise. AMP, ANZ, Knight Frank and Macquarie said average house prices would have to fall between 25% and 45% to make Australian housing affordable.

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