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☆ Sorry, America, it's looking like higher interest rates are going to stick around longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."

Persons: Powell, —, It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ Doubt we'll see more than two 25bps rate cuts this year, says Bill Lee
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDoubt we'll see more than two 25bps rate cuts this year, says Bill LeeWilliam Lee, Chief Economist at the Milken Institute, gives his expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Persons: Bill Lee William Lee Organizations: Milken Institute, Reserve

☆ Australia's central bank raises rates to 12-year high, tempers hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

As a result, the local dollar slipped 0.4% to $0.6460 and bond futures rallied as investors lengthened the odds on a further rise in December. "It was a dovish hike...it's not pointing to any immediate need for a follow-up," said Rob Thompson, rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "You'd think they'd have opened the door to a bit more than this, but they are just trying to do as little as possible. INFLATION PROVES STUBBORNThis was Bullock's first rate change since taking over as governor in September, and could go some way to burnish her inflation-fighting credentials. Reporting by Wayne Cole Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michele Bullock, it's, Rob Thompson, Bullock, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, RBC Capital Markets, CPI, Australia, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, United States, Canada, Europe

☆ Yen worries increase as dollar strengthens after Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japanese 10,000 yen and U.S. 100 dollar banknotes are arranged for a photograph in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 7, 2017. The dollar hit fresh peaks on Thursday, sitting around its highest against the yen since November after a hawkish pause by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed met market expectations at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, holding interest rates steady at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The index climbed for its ninth straight week last week, its longest winning streak in nearly a decade as resilient U.S. growth fueled a rebound in the dollar. The Japanese yen was feeling the heat after the Fed meeting, hovering around 148.39 per dollar and just off a fresh low of 148.47, its weakest since November.

Persons: Sterling, Ueda, Carol Kong, BOE Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Fed, U.S, Bank of Japan, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of, CPI, National Australia Bank Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, hovering near a record low, is expected to remain under pressure amid focus on crude oil prices and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision. Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) indicate rupee will open at around 83.25-83.29 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.2675 in the previous session. The Fed on Wednesday is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged with futures assigning a near zero percent probability of a rate hike. "We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bps hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%," BofA Global Research said in a note.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Brent, Nimesh Vora, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Reserve Bank of, Fed, Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, U.S . Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Asia

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."

Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S

"Everyone is expecting a rate cut," Finance Minister Fernando Haddad noted in an interview with RedeTV journalist Kennedy Alencar. Planning Minister Simone Tebet was even more emphatic, saying at an event in Rio de Janeiro that the central bank must start its easing cycle with a 50-basis-point cut. She said high interest rate levels were hurting the retail sector. However, they still diverge on the size of the cut, with 55% of those polled betting on a 25 basis point move while 32% expect a 50 basis point cut. On Thursday, Lula himself renewed calls on the central bank to cut interest rates.

Persons: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Fernando Haddad, Kennedy Alencar, Haddad, Simone Tebet, Lula, Gabriel Galipolo, Ailton Aquino, Lula's, Bernardo Caram, Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Gabriel Araujo, Steven Grattan, Josie Kao, Frances Kerry Organizations: RIO DE, Finance, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: BRASILIA, RIO, RIO DE JANEIRO, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brasilia

☆ The CPI trade: What JPMorgan sees the market doing, based on these scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Under this scenario, the S & P 500 would rise 0.5%-0.75%. 25% chance — CPI between 2.8% and 2.9%: The S & P 500 would rally between 1.5% and 1.75% under this scenario. The S & P 500 would drop between 1% and 1.25% under this outcome. The S & P 500 would rally 2.5%-3%. 5% probability — CPI at 3.7% or higher: This outcome would spark a market selloff to the tune of 2%-2.5% in the S & P 500.

Persons: Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, 25bps, Fed

☆ Reaction: June US jobs growth cools, but wages won't comfort Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. "Today's numbers confirm the job market is still strong... and this report gives the green light to the Fed to raise rates. "If anything, it probably confirms this idea that the Fed has had that they are making progress in the right direction." "It's not like this is a sudden vast improvement in the labor market." The hours worked numbers are rising slower than the payrolls numbers.

Persons: Nonfarm, payrolls, CANDICE, GOLDMAN, BEN JEFFERY, “, PETER CARDILLO, we're, STUART COLE, JASON PRIDE, MICHAEL BROWN, ”, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: YORK, Labor Department, Reuters, Treasury, BMO, NFP, Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: GOLDMAN SACHS, PHILADELPHIA, WISCONSIN

☆ Norway central bank raises rate to 15-year high, with more to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The facade of Norway's central bank, also known as Norges Bank, in Oslo, Norway. The central bank predicted the policy rate would rise to 4.25% during the autumn. "If we do not raise the policy rate, prices and wages could continue to rise rapidly and inflation become entrenched," Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache said in a statement. "Today's hawkish decision shows that Norges Bank means business and is concerned about inflation becoming entrenched," analysts at Nordea said in a note to clients. The hike raises the policy rate to its highest level since the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Persons: Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache, Nordea Organizations: Norges Bank, Reuters, Norges Bank Governor, Bank, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Oslo, Norway, Norway's, U.S

☆ Asia stocks slip as suspense builds for China, Fed news
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The uncertainty kept S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures flat after a slight dip overnight. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.2% and FTSE futures 0.1%. A survey showed morale at big Japanese manufacturers edged up in June to stay in positive territory for a second straight month. The currency has been falling for weeks as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) doggedly defended its super easy policies. Oil prices edged higher after a couple of sessions of losses, still struggling with concerns about Chinese demand absent a sizable stimulus package.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Tapas Strickland, doggedly, BoE, Brent, Wayne Cole, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal, NAB, Nasdaq, South, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Asia, Beijing, Pacific, Japan, South Korea

The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks was steady (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. "But a lot of it is also to do with interest rate expectations," he added, warning that the Fed staying hawkish would mean "we quite quickly see valuation compression again." Two-year British government bond yields , which reflect rate expectations, added 6 basis points (bps) to around 4.94% - near last week's 15-year high.

Persons: 25bps, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle Organizations: of England, Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Asian stocks pause rally, eyeing China stimulus, Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat after Wall Street's bullish run met resistance on Friday. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded due to the Juneteenth holiday, while futures were largely steady. The People's Bank of China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan prime interest rates on Tuesday, following a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week. Several major banks last week cut their growth forecasts for China after the recent disappointing data. U.S. crude futures fell 1.0% to 71.03 per barrel, and Brent crude was down 1.3% at $75.63 per barrel.

Persons: BOE, Jerome Powell's, bullish, HSI, Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, POWELL, Powell, Ray Attrill, Brent, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue Organizations: Nikkei, . Federal, Nasdaq, Cash U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan's, U.S ., People's Bank of, National Australia Bank, The Bank of England, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Japan, People's Bank of China, .

☆ The S&P 500 could pop after Tuesday’s consumer price index report, JPMorgan’s trading desk says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The latest reading on the U.S. consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge, is slated for release Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. The S & P 500 would pop between 0.75% and 1.25% under this scenario, JPMorgan said. The S & P 500 would trade between breakeven and 0.5% higher under this outcome, the traders predicted. The clear winner here would be the tech sector, JPMorgan traders said. The S & P 500 would drop 2.5% to 3% under this outcome.

Persons: Dow Jones, Buckle, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CPI, Federal, JPMorgan, Services Locations: U.S, breakeven

☆ Dollar steady as traders consider Fed, global rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The increased expectations that U.S. and global interest rates may have further to rise has come on the back of surprise rate increases by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week. The Canadian dollar was last steady at C$1.3365 to the greenback, after rising to a one-month top of C$1.3321 in the previous session. The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly to 104.02, though strayed not too far from an over two-month high hit last week, on the back of higher Treasury yields. Money markets are pricing in a 29% chance that the Fed raises rates by 25bps at its policy meeting next week. "Markets have raised their FOMC rate hike expectations following a surprise Bank of Canada rate hike," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Persons: Edward Moya, Carol Kong, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, BoC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Wednesday, Canadian, U.S, European Central Bank, 25bps, of Canada, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Locations: Chicago, Asia

☆ China's factory activity swings to surprise growth in May - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. The reading surpassed expectations of 49.5 in a Reuters poll, a stark contrast to a deeper contraction activity seen in the official PMI released on Wednesday. The manufacturing subindexes showed factory output rose at the fastest clip in 11 months while new orders including new exports expanded in May. However, business confidence for the coming 12 months fell to a seven-month low amid concerns over global economic prospects. "Current economic growth lacks internal drive and market entities lack sufficient confidence, highlighting the importance of expanding and restoring demand, " said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Persons: Zhou Hao, Hang, Wang Zhe, 25bps, Liangping Gao, Joe Cash, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: P Global, PMI, Guotai, CSI, Caixin Insight, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ Stocks meander while Treasuries, dollar fall as traders wait on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. While the dollar index fell, long-term U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower while yields on shorter-dated bills ticked up, as investors positioned themselves before the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.29% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.12%. The dollar fell ahead of the Fed statement indicating bets that it make indicate a pause in the hiking cycle, which could lead to further dollar declines. The dollar index fell 0.461%, with the euro up 0.5% to $1.1054.

☆ There isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William Lee
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William LeeHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

☆ Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Support for the 25bps rate hike was very strong across the board
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Jerome Powell: Support for the 25bps rate hike was very strong across the boardFed Chair Jerome Powell answers questions from reporters after the central bank announced it was raising interest rates another 25 basis points.

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decisionHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.

☆ Stocks slide into Fed mode, shorts stalk banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight, tumbling regional bank stocks (.KRX) dragged the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 1.2% and oil dived more than 5% on fears that shaky bank confidence and signs of weakness in the U.S. job market were harbingers of a looming broader slowdown. Bonds rallied as investors reckoned the Federal Reserve, which sets policy later on Wednesday, will soon be switching from rate hikes to cuts. Among banks, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O), down 27.8%, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N), down 15.1%, and Comerica Inc (CMA.N) down 12.4%, were the biggest losers. If that happens, focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Australian dollar has given back some of the ground gained on Tuesday, following a surprise rate hike from the central bank, and sat at $0.6670.

☆ Dollar, yen boosted as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 after a 0.5% increase overnight. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.13% to 133.53 per dollar, after gaining about 0.4% on Tuesday. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% in April as the worries eased. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down to -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar slid to a six-week low of $0.6604 before settling down 0.3% at $0.6605 after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - Data showing British inflation stayed above 10% in March meant the pound climbed against the dollar while other currencies dipped, with the greenback underpinned by a tick-up in U.S. yields. Sterling was last 0.25% higher at $1.2454, heading back to last week's 10-month high, after data showed British consumer price inflation eased by less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%. However, he added: "With the Fed expected to hike in May and the ECB to hike by more over the coming months, the positive impetus from this data for the pound will likely be contained." Expectations for higher official rates in a market relative to those elsewhere typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting cash into a country while boosting its currency. "It's the volatility in the bond market that's driving the dollar, not the other way round."

The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) fell 0.2%, thanks to a broad-based decline in equities around the world. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures , fell between 0.3-0.5%, suggesting a touch of weakness at the opening bell. The Fed's "beige book" of economic conditions is published on Wednesday and appearances are due from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said that, far from pausing, the central bank should keep raising interest rates, based on how persistent inflation has proven to be. UK inflation fell to 10.1% in March, from February's 10.4% - above expectations for a decline to 9.8% and the highest in western Europe, according to data on Wednesday.

☆ Sterling eases against dollar; inflation keeps pressure on BoE
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] British pound banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, April 19 - Sterling eased on Wednesday as a higher dollar wiped out earlier gains made after data showed Britain has the highest inflation in western Europe, cementing market expectations for a rate hike at the Bank of England's meeting in May. The inflation data initially sent sterling as much as 0.8% higher against the dollar. On Tuesday data showed British wages rose faster than anticipated last month, further supporting more hikes by the BoE. The market is currently pricing in a 99% chance of a 25 bp rate hike from the Bank of England at its next meeting. .

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