"We estimate that real house prices in China declined 16% from the peak in 2021Q3 to 2023Q3," Goldman analysts said.
For context, US real house prices peaked in early 2006 and bottomed in 2012.
Goldman's derived measure of China's real house prices has only dropped by half as much as the US saw during its six-year collapse, as the chart shows below.
Goldman Sachs"[O]verly loose mortgage lending standards and too much mortgage debt, which were at the center of the US subprime crisis, do not apply in China," Goldman analysts said.
Foreclosures soared as homeowners couldn't afford to pay off or refinance their mortgages, which lowered house prices further.
Persons:
—, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Price
Organizations:
Service, International Monetary Fund, Business, Housing
Locations:
China, Beijing, 2021Q3