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Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event at Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida, US, on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. "Trump's re-election would thus pose a significant downside risk to our otherwise constructive growth forecast for the Euro area." Trade policy uncertainty, added defense and security pressures and spillover effects from U.S. domestic policies on, for example, taxes could impact Europe, they explained. Trade tensionsTrump's trade policy, and the uncertainty around it, could be one factor that impacts Europe's economy, just as it did during his last presidency, analysts Stehn and Moberly said. In 2018 and 2019, uncertainty about trade policy reduced industrial production in the euro area by around 2%, they estimated.
Persons: Donald Trump, Eva Marie Uzcategui, Goldman Sachs, Jari Stehn, James Moberly, Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden, Moberly Organizations: Trump National Doral Golf Club, Bloomberg, Getty, White, Trump, European Union, EU, . Defense, NATO, U.S, Stehn Locations: Miami , Florida, Europe, Pennsylvania, U.S, Germany, Stehn, Moberly, Ukraine
Goldman Sachs doesn't expect an inflation spike in the US fueled by turmoil in the Red Sea. To be sure, Red Sea disruptions have caused freight costs to soar as much as 350%. AdvertisementShipping disruptions in the Red Sea have caused freight costs to spike, but the impact on inflation will remain muted, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchHowever, they maintained that goods inflation still won't see a meaningful uptick for two reasons. "Under reasonable pass-through assumptions, a 100% increase in the cost of sea freight therefore only raises core goods inflation by around 0.4pp and overall core inflation by around 0.1pp," the Goldman strategists said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Shipping, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman Locations: Red, Iran, Israel, Gaza, Suez, Asia, Europe, China, Southeast Asia, 0.4pp, 0.1pp
Morning Bid: RIP YCC?
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SYDNEY, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. This, presumably, refers to the fact that 10-year yields have been stuck at the new YCC ceiling of 0.5% for four sessions, even while the BOJ has been busy buying bonds in bulk to get them down. Then again, the market had thought the same last month when the central bank wrongfooted everyone by widening its YCC band. Whatever the decision, time is ticking for YCC and maybe even negative rates in Japan. As for U.S. CPI, the market is clearly priced for a dovish outcome, so there's some risk of disappointment.
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