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Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.
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Although a pause in interest rate hikes appears likely, cuts may be farther off than some believe. Still, investors have remained hyper-alert for signs that the central bank could let up its brisk clip of interest rate increases. The central bank also opened the door to a pause, accelerating bets that the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting in June and cut rates as soon as July. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in JulyExperts say that the Fed won’t cut rates anytime soon for two key reasons: Inflation remains sticky, and the economy has stayed strong. that’s not to say that a Fed rate cut this year is completely out of the cards, says Nicole Webb, senior vice president at Wealth Enhancement Group.
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