I share Ghosh’s concern for the impact of high wheat prices on the poor, but the story is more complicated than greedy speculators versus needy consumers. For one thing, consider this statistic: While speculators were betting on higher wheat prices in the spring of 2022, they’re betting on lower prices now. Managed funds have had a net short position in wheat futures contracts since July 2022, according to data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That undermines the narrative that they invariably root for higher prices. Ghosh told me that there was no justification for prices to spike in the spring of 2022 because the market was well supplied with wheat.

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Persons: Ghosh, —, Vladimir Putin, it’s, ” Scott Irwin, Seth Meyer, ” Organizations: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, University of Illinois, U.S . Department of Agriculture Locations: Russia, Urbana, Champaign, Ukraine