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☆ The problem with Biden’s and Trump’s economic records: They’re really messy
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-29 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“Interpreting economic data is like interpreting a Monet painting in the best of times,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview. “When President Biden takes credit for all jobs and says Trump lost all the jobs? “And until it does, we won’t have a real good sense of what the new metrics are that reflect the direction in the economy and consumer confidence.”Twenty years ago, presidential elections came down to “jobs, jobs, jobs,” Brusuelas said. “They’re going to be thinking, ‘Wait a minute, all this money’s going into this and can replace the job that guys like me do? For the average person, the economic data only means so much anyways, Brusuelas said, adding that it comes down to “protein and petrol” versus percentage points.

Persons: Monet, ” Mark Zandi, it’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “ Trump, Biden, ” Zandi, “, Trump, ”, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ That’s, It’s, They’re, ’ ”, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Moody’s, Trump, RSM, Democrat, Nvidia, “ Locations: what’s

☆ Trump has promised an immigration crackdown if reelected. That could backfire on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.

Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, —, Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, ”, Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, “, Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, ”, Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States

☆ US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US inflation has had a snowballing effect on family budgets. The typical American household spent $709 more in July than they did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics. That figure underscores the cumulative impact high inflation has had on consumer finances — even as price growth has cooled considerably in recent months. Most of that increase in spending is driven by housing costs, which have surged, Zandi told CNN in an email on Friday. Inflation-adjusted earnings are stuck in 2019Even though prices have soared, real earnings, which adjust for inflation, are stuck at late 2019 levels.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, ” Zandi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s, Twitter, CNN, Federal, ” Bank of America Locations: New York

☆ The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.

Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, “, Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York, ”

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ Analysis: Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

They know how it ends: with politicians waiting until the last minute before giving in and finally raising the debt ceiling before disaster strikes. On Friday, it looked like the White House and Republicans were getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling before talks unexpectedly broke down. In 2011, the most serious near-default in American history, markets experienced volatility in the days and weeks before Washington reached a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling. None of this is to say markets are completely ignoring the debt ceiling drama today. The debt ceiling is a manufactured crisis that officials could have dealt with months ago.

☆ Inflation cooling is good economic news. It might not feel like it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks, which had risen on the “inflation is cooling” news Tuesday, were down Wednesday on the “Fed is not convinced” development. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy is trying to find the votes to become speaker, and adding a spending fight to his plate would get messy quickly. But the spending fight loomsNone of the disagreements over spending are going away. Inflation moved the electionThe difference between 7.1% month-over-month inflation and 7.7% inflation in October may not feel like much on the micro level to Americans who are paying 49% more for eggs this year than they were last year. “In the coming decade, they’re going to be fighting hard to get inflation down.”In the meantime, cooling inflation might be praised by policymakers, but it could rub everyone else the wrong way, especially if an economic slowdown starts to feel like a recession.

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