There are two things that could go wrong in the economy that could lead to a recession, Morgan Stanley said.
AdvertisementThe US economy appears on track to keep growing, but there are two things that could spoil the no-recession forecast on Wall Street, according to Morgan Stanley.
A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs," he added.
"So that's another place where I think we could be wrong," Carpenter said of his recession forecast, though he reiterated that a downturn wasn't his baseline view.
And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped," Carpenter added.
Persons:
Morgan Stanley, —, Seth Carpenter, Carpenter, Trump, Morgan, we've
Organizations:
Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed