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☆ CNN polling: Trump supporters drive lack of high confidence in election process in six battleground states
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Most likely voters in six key battleground states express at least some confidence in their state’s election process, according to recent CNN polling conducted by SSRS. But far fewer of them have high confidence in the process, with that mistrust driven largely by voters who support former President Donald Trump. And sizable shares of Trump voters lack even modest confidence in the system. Harris supporters’ expressions of confidence in the election process come amid a campaign that many of her backers view as a referendum on democracy itself. By contrast, only 9% of Trump supporters, on average, say the same.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump’s, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris Organizations: CNN, SSRS, Trump, Republican, ABC, Labor Locations: – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Wisconsin . Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Peach State, Arizona , Georgia

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris each unleashed a new wave of television ads Tuesday as they race to secure an advantage in a presidential campaign dramatically altered in recent weeks. In its first major ad blitz targeting Harris, the Trump campaign is zeroing in on her immigration record in ads running across several key battleground states. It’s a sign that the former president has settled on a longstanding GOP line of attack against the vice president, after grappling with the abrupt change atop the Democratic ticket. Trump, in two new campaign ads, seeks to define Harris on his terms by relying on what has been a political liability for the Biden administration: the management of the US-Mexico border. In response, Harris campaign spokesperson Ammar Moussa said Trump is “running on his trademark lies” and said the former president opposed a congressional border deal that would have helped with enforcement.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, ”, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Ammar Moussa Organizations: Democratic, California –, Convention, Trump, Wisconsin – Locations: Bay, California, Mexico, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, AdImpact

In its first major ad blitz targeting Harris, the Trump campaign is zeroing in on her immigration record in ads running across several key battleground states. It’s a sign that the former president has settled on a longstanding GOP line of attack against the vice president, after grappling with the abrupt change atop the Democratic ticket. It’s part of what the Harris campaign said will be a $50 million blitz in the run-up to next month’s Democratic National Convention – fueled, in part, by the record-breaking fundraising the Harris campaign has seen since Biden’s departure from the race and endorsement of her candidacy a little more than a week ago. During an influx of unaccompanied migrant children, Biden tasked the vice president with overseeing diplomatic efforts in Central America. “Donald Trump wants to take our country backward,” Harris can be heard saying in the ad.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, ”, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Central America –, –, she’s, “, Ammar Moussa, that’s, “ Donald Trump, ” Harris, Jen O’Malley Dillon Organizations: CNN, Democratic, California –, Convention, Republicans, Trump, NBC, Department of Homeland Security, Wisconsin – Locations: Bay, California, Mexico, Central America, Europe, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, AdImpact, Atlanta

☆ What to expect in the 100 days until Election Day – and beyond
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Annette Choi | Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

So we don’t know what specifically will happen in the next 100 days until Election Day on November 5, or what could come after, when the country’s unique Electoral College process gets going. December: Electoral votes are castAfter questions about the election are settled, states confirm, or ascertain, their statewide results. Electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast electoral votes for their statewide winner. Nebraska and Maine also allocate some electoral votes by congressional district, and these could be pivotal in a close race. In any event, lawmakers gather on January 6, as everyone should remember from 2020, to count electoral votes.

Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden’s, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Jeff Zeleny, Sen, JD Vance, Trump’s, He’d, Biden, Vance, Trump, Maya Rudolph, Harris –, isn’t Organizations: CNN, Democratic Party, Biden, Democrats, Republican, Trump, ABC News, ABC, Fox News, Supreme, that’s, Electors, Nebraska, Electoral College, Electoral Locations: Chicago, Harris, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maine

☆ Kamala Harris: How her warp-speed campaign launch has changed the 2024 race
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Eric Bradner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

CNN —The five days since Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign launched at warp speed have remade the 2024 race – and given Democrats new hope of preventing a second Donald Trump presidency. Fundraising exploded, with Harris’ campaign saying she raised $126 million between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday evening. And Democrats were more eager to devote their own time to working to elect Harris: More than 100,000 people signed up to volunteer for her bid, and more than 2,000 applied for campaign jobs, Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a Wednesday memo. The strength of Harris’ launch has at times surprised even the former Biden campaign staffers who on Sunday suddenly found themselves working for what was converted into the Harris campaign. Biden’s campaign believed his path to 270 Electoral College votes ran through the “blue wall” states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Persons: Kamala Harris ’, Donald Trump, Harris, Harris ’, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Trump, It’s, Ron Bieber, “ I’ve, ”, she’s, Joe Biden, Biden, Harris hasn’t, “, Base Andrews, O’Malley Dillon, Biden’s, ” O’Malley Dillon, Douglas Emhoff, Erin Schaff, Howard University hoodie, –, Nancy Pelosi’s, dispirited, fraudsters, cheaters, ” Harris, Donald Trump’s, Charli XCX, ‘, ’, Jared Polis, Maxwell Frost, Tony Evers, ” Evers, ” Trump, Felita Daniels Ashley, Olivia Jessup, Anger, Natalie Jauch, Charli, Jessup, Taylor Swift, Kesha, ” Jessup, Kevin Mohatt, ” CNN’s Alison Main, Betsy Klein, Ebony Davis, Sam Fossum, Edward, Isaac Dovere, Lisa Respers Organizations: CNN, Democratic Party, Trump, Michigan AFL, Democratic, Biden, Convention, ABC, Base, Republican, CNN’s, New York Times, Siena, Electoral, Air Force, Joint Base Andrews, Naval Observatory, Howard University, Federal, San, Democratic National Convention, Democratic Colorado Gov, ”, Milwaukee, Heritage Foundation, California Democrat, Zeta Phi Beta, of Education, “, American Federation of Teachers Locations: Houston, Gaza, – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Sun, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Maryland, Wilmington , Delaware, San Francisco, California, British, ” Florida, Milwaukee, “, West Allis , Wisconsin, Indianapolis, America, Lisa Respers France

☆ Electoral votes and swing state margins, explained
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | Renée Rigdon | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

California gets 54 electoral votes (it has two senators and 52 congressional districts). The winner is the candidate who gets 270 or more electoral votes. If no candidate gets to 270 electoral votes, the House of Representatives picks the winner from among the candidates who got electoral votes. The campaigns will focus more attention on the fewer than one-third of all electoral votes they consider to be up for grabs or winnable by either party. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, apportion some of their electoral votes by congressional district rather than giving all of them to the state winner.

Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “, Kristen Soltis Anderson, ”, Biden, Trump, Hillary Clinton Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican National Convention, House, Electoral, District of Columbia, Wisconsin –, Trump, Constitution, Democrats Locations: . Washington, California, . Texas, Florida, New York, Maine, – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Constitution . North Carolina , Colorado, Nebraska

☆ Analysis: Why Republicans are likely to win the Senate this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Senate Democrats (including independents who caucus with them) hold 23 seats up for election this year; Republicans hold 11. Positive signs for DemocratsBut is the race for the Senate really over if Republicans just win West Virginia? Democratic Senate candidates seem to be at least tied or ahead in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of course, Democratic Senate candidates outrunning the top of the ticket is nothing new. For Democrats to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans would have to lose all these Senate races.

Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, Trump, Democratic Sen, Joe Manchin, Simone Pathe, it’s, we’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Sens, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin, Kari Lake, Lake, Nevada’s, Missouri’s Todd Akin, Mehmet Oz, Mark Kelly, Larry Hogan, I’m, ” Organizations: CNN, White, Senate, Republicans, Democratic, Republican, Republican Senate, Democrats, Florida, GOP, West Virginia, New York Times, Siena College, Biden Locations: nonjudicial, West Virginia, Texas, West, Arizona , Michigan, Montana , Nevada , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Senate, Maine, Arizona , Nevada , Montana and Ohio, Montana, Ohio, Michigan , Pennsylvania, Maryland –

Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. … orand The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable. Scenario 4 They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona … They involve Mr. Biden winningand Scenario 5 … or Michigan and Georgia.

Persons: Biden, Akshita Chandra, Yuji Sakai, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s, Court’s, … orand, Hamas’s, Mr, …, —, Bill Clinton’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Presidency, Trump, New York Times, Electoral, Wisconsin –, Sun, Siena, Black, The Arizona, Michigan, Mr, North Carolina, Republicans, Georgia, Democrats, Congressional District, Michigan …, Wisconsin, Democratic, House Locations: Arizona, – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Wis, Ariz ., Michigan, Arizona , Michigan, Arizona , Nevada, Israel, Gaza, Nebraska, Minnesota, United States, Michigan , Pennsylvania

☆ Why is there nostalgia for the Trump economy in the battleground states?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Yet those numbers are reversed when asked to rate the state’s economy. In Wisconsin, negative views of the national economy outweigh positive ones by 16 points, while positive views of the state economy outweigh negative ones by 17 points. Across these battleground states, 46% of registered voters said their personal financial situation is headed in the right direction. Now, more than half of registered voters in the Wall Street Journal poll of battleground states said they either strongly or somewhat approve of the job Trump did as president. Biden is neck-and-neck with Trump among registered voters in those seven swing states on the question of protecting democracy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Larry Summers, Summers, Biden, Ariel Edwards, Levy, Edwards, “ People’s, ”, It’s, Trump, Biden’s, Joe, Jill Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, “ He’s, ” Jill Biden, Will, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Sanders “, George W, – Trump’s, Bush Organizations: CNN — Voters, Wall Street, Biden, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Gallup, Journal, Street, CBS, Vermont, White, Big Pharma, Medicare, CNN, Republican, Trump, Capitol Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina , Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, brag, Iraq

The dynamic is particularly unpleasant for House Republicans, many of whom would much prefer the hard-line border security bill they passed last year on a party-line vote, known as H.R. Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump," she said while campaigning in New Hampshire last week. Even GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has taken pains to support Trump, has called for House Republicans to back the border deal. “To those who think that if President Trump wins, which I hope he does, that we can get a better deal – you won’t,” Graham recently told reporters. So if you think you’re going to get a better deal next time, in ’25, if President Trump’s president, Democrats will be expecting a pathway to citizenship for that,” he said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, he’d, ”, It’s, Chip Roy, “, Roy, ’, Andy Biggs, Trump, Joe Biden, that’s, Christopher Devine, Devine, Senate – Arizona's Kari Lake, Pennsylvania's Mehmet Oz, Georgia's Herschel Walker –, parroted, Nikki Haley, Who, Sen, Lankford, Mitch McConnell, James Lankford, ” McConnell, GOP Sen, Lindsey Graham of, ” Graham, Trump’s, Mike Johnson, – Organizations: Republicans ’, Senate, GOP, Republican, Florida Gov, House Republicans, Texas Republican, Arizona Republican, White, Republican Party, Democrat, House, Republicans, University of Dayton, Trump, Virginia, South Carolina Gov, United States Senate Locations: Ukraine, Israel, There’s, Texas, New Jersey, Washington, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, state's, Down, Wisconsin, Trump's, Florida, New Hampshire, James Lankford of Oklahoma, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, ’

Young voters could be pivotal in an election year where the race is expected to be very close between presumptive nominees Biden and Republican front-runner Donald Trump. While young voters tend to favor Democrats, even a small drop in turnout among those voters – or a shift toward Republicans – could make a dispositive difference in battleground states. Biden has a dramatic disadvantage, compared with Trump, on the economy, even as young voters report overwhelmingly that their own financial situations are solid. That's on track with Biden's performance among young voters in 2020, when exit polls showed Biden took 60% of the youth vote, compared to 36% of young voters who voted for Trump. The data on young voters reflects a trend other polling has shown throughout the campaign season: Americans are unhappy with the ways things are going and don't want a Biden-Trump rematch.

Persons: –, John Della Volpe, “, ”, Joe Biden's, Biden, Donald Trump, Republicans –, Trump, That's, aren't, Anil Cacodcar, Della Volpe, pollster Della Volpe, Andy Beshear Organizations: Harvard University's Institute, Politics, Young, Republican, Republicans, Biden, Trump, Democratic, GOP, America, Jackson, Health Organization, Kentucky Gov, Democrat Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Dobbs v, Virginia, New York, Maryland, – Arizona , Arkansas , Colorado , Florida , Iowa , Missouri, Montana , Nebraska , Nevada , Pennsylvania, South Dakota

☆ One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

CNN —Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. Twenty states have likewise voted for the GOP presidential nominee in all four of those contests. That means 40 of the 50 states, or 80%, have voted the same way in four consecutive presidential elections. In the presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, though, the states where the margin of victory landed within four points of the national vote total dwindled. Eventually a Democratic choice to write off Florida and Ohio could provide a tactical benefit for the GOP presidential nominee.

Persons: ”, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden’s, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Trump, hasn’t, Obama, Kyle Kondik, Ball, Kondik, Amy Walter, Biden, Crystal Ball, Cook, Trump’s, headwinds, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Roy Cooper, Erika Franklin Fowler, “, George W, Bush’s, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, I’ve, Steve Schale, Schale, don’t, it’s, “ Biden, Ben Tulchin, Fowler Organizations: CNN, Labor, White, Democratic, GOP, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Electoral College, Trump, Democrats, Crystal Ball, New Hampshire, Republican, White House, Biden, Pennsylvania Senate, Democratic Gov, Wesleyan Media Project, Wesleyan University, Electoral, Republicans, ”, Wisconsin, District, New, New York City, Sunshine Locations: Indiana , Iowa , Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona , Georgia, New, dislodging Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, New Hampshire , Virginia, Oregon, Texas

☆ Cardinals vs Patriots: Arizona's woes continue as Kyler Murray hurt in 27-13 loss to New England
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Amy Woodyatt | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +27 min

Jeff Dean/AP Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams catches a pass against Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard on December 11. Gary McCullough/AP Green Bay Packers wide receiver Samori Toure is tackled by Detroit Lions safety Will Harris. Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson dives for a two-point conversion during the Vikings' 29-22 victory over the Chicago Bears. Gerald Herbert/AP Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is tripped up by Denver Broncos cornerback K'Waun Williams. Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today Sports/Reuters New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas makes a reception against Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J.

☆ Fewer states than ever could pick the next president
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

Five states decided the last presidential race by flipping from Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020 – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Democratic and Republican presidential nominees have each carried 20 states in every election since at least 2008. Democrats did not demonstrate the capacity to threaten any of the GOP’s core 20 states, as Republicans did in Nevada. A race with just Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona as true battlegrounds would begin with Democrats favored in states holding 260 Electoral College votes (including Washington, DC) and Republicans in states with 235. After 2022, the list of genuinely competitive presidential states may be shrinking, but, if anything, that could increase the tension as the nation remains poised on the knife’s edge between two deeply entrenched, but increasingly antithetical, political coalitions.

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