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In today's big story, we examine how this summer is shaping up to be tough for the stock market . Stocks are on track to either remain flat or turn negative going forward , according to two market vets Jennifer spoke to. The pessimism about stocks' future is due to a few factors. Some Nvidia employees are considered to be millionaires SOPA ImagesThere is, however, one company that could salvage things: Nvidia. As the key chipmaker in the space, a win for Nvidia is a win for everyone betting on AI being the future.
Persons: , Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jennifer Sor, Stocks, Jennifer, It's, Jerome Powell, BI's Linette Lopez, Warren Buffett Scott Morgan, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, Michael Burry, John Paulson, Alyssa Powell, Gen Zers, Instagram, Vincent Sandoval, Getty, Henrik Sorensen, Tyler Le, Larry Ellison, it's, aren't, Cash, Bill Lee, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, New York Knicks, NBA, Business, Getty, Fidelity, Hamptons, Nvidia, Reuters, Berkshire, JPMorgan, Meta, Sciences, Apple, The Locations: Montauk, Berkshire, New York, London
The stock has another 20% rise left in it before the bubble deflates, Capital Economics predicted. That's because stocks tend to inflate rapidly right before the end of a bubble, the firm said. AdvertisementInvestors on the lookout for signs of a bubble should expect the stock market to be pumped up by another 20% before correcting, Capital Economics researchers said. According to John Higgins, Capital Economics' chief market economist, stocks look like they're in a late-stage bubble, meaning equities are in for a steep rally before the bubble eventually bursts. I think that it's a simple one really that involves a bubble inflating in the stock market," he said, pointing to the excitement for big tech.
Persons: , John Higgins, There's, I'm, we've, Higgins, Bubbles Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq
The stock market is headed for a disappointing few months. And I think we should also be prepared to see some nasty aggressive selloff along the way," Morrison said. "Political volatility is, in itself… going to trip over stock market volatility," McGough warned. More extreme forecasters have predicted a market crash as steep as 65%, as equities mirror previous bubbles. You're probably going to come back without the material move one way or the other," McGough said.
Persons: there's, , David Morrison, Morrison, Will McGough, McGough Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Trade, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Prime Capital Investment Advisors, Fed, New York Fed, Treasury
Fears of a potential banking crisis are on the rise as interest rates stay elevated. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2001 as the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. Markets have already seen 1 regional bank fail this year, according to FDIC data. According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the longer interest rates stay high, the more the Fed risks damaging the economy. "That's the kind of thing I'm worried about in the context of persistently high interest rates."
Persons: , Mark Zandi, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Daniel Pinto Organizations: Fed, Service, Analytics, Yahoo Finance, Bank, Regulators, First Bank, Fulton Bank, Stanhope Capital, Bloomberg Locations: Philadelphia, America
The Fed has a strong case to lower interest rates, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. The bond chief said high rates may stoke inflation, as the economy has shifted to being a net creditor. "I would lay out an argument that actually, if you cut interest rates, you bring down inflation," Rieder said. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, BlackRock's bond chief Rick Rieder argued that the Fed needs to loosen monetary policy before inflation falls. That's partly because high interest rates may actually be stoking inflation, thanks to the huge transfer of money in the economy from borrowers to lender, Rieder said.
Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Rieder, , Rick Rieder Organizations: stoke, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Business
Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York
In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.
Persons: , Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London
US stocks soared on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 notching an all-time high. The benchmark index surpassed 5,300 for the first time after April inflation came in cooler than expected. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 breaking its all-time record as traders took in cooling inflation numbers. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.3% in April, less than 0.4% in March. Slower economic activity helps lower inflation, though it could also indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Persons: , Preston Caldwell, Morningstar, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, LPL
The DA Davidson analyst has predicted as much as a 20% decline in Nvidia stock by the end of the year. Nvidia's largest customers could turn into competition as they develop their own AI chips, Luria warned. AdvertisementMost of Nvidia's business comes from its five largest customers, Luria said, which include Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Tesla. And while some of Nvidia's customers are stockpiling its GPUs, demand is bound to run out eventually, Luria previously told Bloomberg, as firms can only accumulate so many chips. AdvertisementLuria has among few forecasters who are bearish on Nvidia stock.
Persons: Gil Luria, Davidson, Luria, , BNN, That's Organizations: Service, Nvidia, BNN Bloomberg, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Bloomberg
US stocks rose as traders took in slightly cooler inflation figures. Consumer prices rose 3.4% year-per-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.5% increase. Still, investors have muted expectations for Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation report, which showed prices cooled slightly in April. Falling inflation has fueled some hope the Fed is set to issue several interest rate cuts this year, which is bullish for stocks.
Persons: , Seema Shah, Sonu Varghese Organizations: Service, Treasury, Asset Management, Traders, Carson Group
AdvertisementThe market should be careful what it wishes for when it comes to rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Ed Yardeni, a longtime market veteran, has warned of a stock market "meltup" if the Fed were to cut interest rates this summer. High interest rates on risk tipping the economy into recession, but lowering rates too quickly risks a resurgence in inflation, which could slam American consumers. Fed officials have said they're looking for more evidence inflation is on track to fall to its 2% price target before mulling rate cuts. AdvertisementFor the most part, investors aren't expecting interest rates to come down before September.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, meltdowns, Yardeni, , they're Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Fed
Two brothers were arrested and charged with pulling off a $25 million crypto heist in seconds. The DOJ said the Peraire-Bueno brothers tampered with the ethereum blockchain and funneled money to private accounts. AdvertisementTwo brothers were arrested and charged with a major crypto heist, the Department of Justice said on Wednesday. The pair stole around $25 million worth of crypto in a heist that took about 12 seconds. The Peraire-Bueno brothers were arrested on Tuesday and are set to appear in two separate courts Wednesday afternoon.
Persons: Bueno, , Anton Peraire, James Peraire, Damian Williams, they've Organizations: DOJ, Service, Department of Justice, New, IRS, Southern, Justice Department Locations: Boston, New York
Read previewRussia's economy is fragile and policymakers won't be able to stave off a crisis for very long, a think tank researcher argued in a post on Tuesday. AdvertisementRussia's economy has flashed key signs of weaknesses since the West first began imposing sanctions on the nation in 2022. And high interest rates, necessitated by all that inflation, stifle investment in productivity and further distort the economy," Kolyandr said. AdvertisementOther experts have noted that Russia faces a dilemma as it juggles managing its economy and prolonging its war against Ukraine. According to one European economist, the nation has become dependent on war for economic growth, and it can't afford to win or lose the war.
Persons: , Alexander Kolyandr, Kolyandr, Putin Organizations: Service, Centre for, Kremlin, Business Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Central, Russia, West, Europe
The US economy and stock market are on a clear path to recession, according to Paul Dietrich. The B. Riley Wealth Management CIO pointed to a handful of warning signs that suggest a downturn is on the horizon. The final blow to the economy could be the US pulling back on stimulus spending, he warned. AdvertisementThere's a large number of warnings flashing for the US that suggest the economy is on a near-certain path to recession, according to B. Riley Wealth's chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich. In a recent note, he pointed to a cluster of warning signs in the economy, such as hotter-than-expected inflation throughout the first quarter and greater volatility in the market.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, , Riley Wealth's, Dietrich Organizations: Riley Wealth, Service, Wall Street, Business
De-dollarization efforts won't do much to dethrone the dollar, Morgan Stanley said. There are no true alternatives to holding the US dollar at the moment, Morgan Stanley strategists said. AdvertisementThe dollar's status as the top currency of central banks and for international trade probably isn't fading soon, according to Morgan Stanley. "Now, reasonable people can disagree about whether cryptocurrencies are going to appreciate or depreciate, but I'd argue that the best outcome for a dominant currency is neither." Displacing a dominant currency is something that happens over the course of decades, economists previously told Business Insider, as it takes time for people to shift to other currencies once a dominant currency is recognized as "safe."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , James Lord, Michael Zezas, That's, Lord, there's, Zezas, Crypto, David Adams, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Service, Rivals, greenback, Business Locations: Beijing, China
In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago
The S&P 500 could fall around 500 points in a swift correction, Stifel strategists warned. The investment firm said falling inflation was a "pipe dream," and Fed rate cuts could be delayed. Markets see just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch tool. "We have been wary of a broad S&P 500 correction in the middle quarters of 2024. Markets have already dialed back their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year, which drove a sell-of in stocks in April.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Fed, PCE, Traders
Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.
Persons: , they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall
"The one thing that our economy is going to be guaranteed is a wartime economy," Daniel told Business Insider in an interview. Interest in ultra-bearish takes on the market or the economy is on the up based on raw search data. Google searches for "stock market crash" have jumped 17% over the last quarter, while searches for "economic crash" have surged 15%, according to search analytics firm Glimpse. In both communities, users are sounding the alarm on all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios for the economy, with some predicting a stock market crash, housing market crash, or a total collapse of the US financial system. "Others may not be as lucky and could be constrained by them, and that could color their outlooks for the stock market and the economy."
Persons: , Daniel, subreddit, Freddie Smith, Smith, aren't, Jonathan Rose, he's, Rose, there's, that's, Richard Sylla Organizations: Service, Genesis Gold, US, Northwestern Mutual, New York University Locations: Washington ,, Reddit, Florida
Read previewThe US could be "sleepwalking" into a recession, and signs of a downturn in key areas of the economy are starting to show, according to top economist David Rosenberg. That's a strong sign the economy is weakening, as manufacturing has only contracted on two occasions since 1997 without the economy later slipping into recession, Rosenberg noted. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, a notoriously accurate recession indicator, has signaled a coming downturn since July 2022. The labor market is cracking, a slowdown in services activity is dragging on real-time growth, and forward looking financial signals still point to a coming slowdown," Rosenberg said. Rosenberg has been warning of a coming recession for months — and fears of a downturn are rising as investors anticipate the Fed keeping interest rates higher-for-longer.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, We're, That's Organizations: Service, Business, Treasury
Read previewThe US miscalculated when it imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, and not only has Vladimir Putin's economy weathered the impact, but the West is facing the negative effects of the economic restrictions it imposed. Food and energy prices have soared since the West imposed sanctions on Russia, he noted partly because Russia is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and grain. Even the US dollar may end up worse off due to sanctions, Rubin said. Russia's trade with China, for instance, has nearly completely phased out the dollar, Russian officials said last year. "Sanctioning the ruble and confiscating a third of the Russian central bank's foreign reserves was supposed to cripple the Russian economy.
Persons: , Vladimir, Jeff Rubin, " Rubin, crimp, Rubin, Putin Organizations: Service, Business, The Globe, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Russian
The Fed risks "breaking" something in the economy if it delays rate cuts, according to Moody's Mark Zandi. Higher interest rates raise the odds of recession or bank failures, the economist warned. "If I were king for the day, I would really be cutting rates at this point," Zandi told Yahoo Finance. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Zandi warned of the consequences that could arise if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates over the next few months. Keeping rates at their current level raises the risk of recession, and could expose other cracks in the financial system, Zandi warned.
Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi, Zandi, , Mark Zandi Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Moody's, Business
Wheat prices have surged over the past month, climbing to their highest level since August. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which is already running hotter than expected in the US. AdvertisementWheat prices have soared to their highest level in eight months thanks to a series of disruptions stemming from geopolitical conflict and extreme weather events. Russia has attacked key grain hubs in Ukraine, which caused wheat prices to skyrocket in 2023. Higher wheat prices could stoke inflation, which has clocked in hotter-than-expected in the US for the last three months.
Persons: Organizations: stoke, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Chicago, Europe, Ukraine, Russia, Australia
US stocks dropped on Wednesday led by a selloff in the tech sector. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in the tech sector as investors took in weak financials and earnings guidance. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement
Persons: Tesla, , David Bahnsen Organizations: Intel, Reuters, Service, Nasdaq, Justice Department, New York Fed Locations: Here's
China is grappling with a retirement crisis as its population ages. According to OECD data, people over the age of 60 account for 13% of the country's workforce. China is anticipating another 300 million people to reach retirement age in the next 10 years. AdvertisementChina is going through a retirement crisis, with a significant portion of older people finding that they can't afford to stop working. That rivals the share of workers who are of retirement age in the US, where 10%-15% are aged 60 or older.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Service, OECD, Reuters, Social Security, Budget, Trustees Locations: China
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