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Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel
Investors have become "too complacent" in the calm before a potential storm for stock markets, according to Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer. Stock market volatility is usually indicated through the VIX index and is often considered a barometer of fear and uncertainty in the market. Downside protection for investors Uleer also highlighted a number of opportunities for investors to lock in their gains for this year. In the illustrated example above, the portfolio would suffer a maximum loss of 3.41% even if the stock market declined further, not accounting for trading costs, by mid-December. Potential upside Despite the near-term risks, the market strategist pointed to the travel and leisure sector for upside potential.
Persons: Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer, It's, I'm, Uleer, CNBC's Organizations: Deutsche Bank's, Stock, PMI, Deutsche Bank, Uleer, Downside, Airlines Locations: China, Europe, Refinitiv
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