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☆ Inflation outlook rises, fueled by expected increases for housing costs, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On a one-year basis, the expectation increased to 3.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from March and the highest since November 2023. However, expected increases in housing prices are particularly troublesome for policymakers who expected shelter costs to ease this year. Along with expected higher home costs, respondents see rents rising 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage point from the prior month. They expect food prices to increase 5.3% (up 0.2 percentage point from a month ago), gasoline to rise 4.8% (up 0.3 percentage point); and college education to increase by 9%, a 2.5 percentage point surge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the all-items CPI to show a 3.4% increase for April from the prior year, down 0.1 percentage point from March.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Dow Jones Organizations: Costco, Consumers, New York Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Labor Locations: Novato , California, New, New York

☆ Renters' hopes of being able to buy a home have fallen to a record low, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of "residential mobility," or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank's annual housing survey for 2024. Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership. Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. Survey respondents expect housing prices to increase 5.1% over the next year, nearly double the 2.6% expected rate in February 2023 and above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2%. Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher.

Persons: Freddie Mac, There's Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, National Association of Realtors, Fed, Federal, Market Locations: Manhattan, New York City, New

☆ Inflation comes in hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.

Persons: That's, —, That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,

☆ US demand for new credit down in 2023, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S

☆ Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The results were part of the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for August. Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. While the Fed worries over higher prices, the inflation outlook was mixed. Expectations for inflation one year and five years out rose just 0.1 percentage point on the month, taking them respectively to 3.6% and 3%. That comes with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, or 0.1 percentage point above its year-ago level.

Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, York Fed's Survey, Fed Locations: New, York

☆ Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That came with a corresponding decline of 0.3 percentage point in the overall outlook for inflation over the next year. All of those levels are still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, though they are drifting closer to the goal. Food prices are projected to rise by 5.8%, a 0.1 percentage point decline from the previous month. The likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased to 41.8%, a 1.1 percentage point increase. Elsewhere in the survey, the one-year outlook for home price appreciation rose to 2.5%, the highest since July 2022 and a 0.7 percentage point increase from March.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

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