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☆ AI mania is just 'typical bubble hype' like the crypto craze, says top economist Paul Romer
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Advertisement"Right now there's way too much confidence about the future trajectory of AI," Romer said. However, the economist argued there was not enough data available for the tech to keep progressing at the same pace. "It's just a lot of hype, the typical bubble hype where people are trying to cash in on the latest trend." Taken together, Romer and Kaltbaum see AI-linked stocks as hogging the market's gains — rightfully or not — and view the frenzy as a sign of problems ahead.

Persons: —, Paul Romer, Gee, Romer, Gary Kaltbaum, Kaltbaum Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, World Bank, Boston College, Nvidia, Nike, Kaltbaum Capital Management, Fox Business

☆ 10 Years, 100 Stories: The Work That Defines the Upshot
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( The Upshot Staff | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +20 min

Ten years ago this week, The New York Times introduced the Upshot, a section devoted to explaining “politics, policy and everyday life.” That’s a wide scope, by design. As a result, more than 5,000 articles later, the Upshot has been many things to many readers. To mark our 10th birthday, we’ve collected 100 stories that embody the Upshot. WordleBot Eden Weingart/The New York Times When Wordle first became popular, several people on the internet claimed, plausibly, that they had come up with the “best” opening word. Force of Ship Impact Was on the Scale of a Rocket Launch Erin Schaff/The New York Times We think of the Upshot as a place where back-of-the-envelope calculations can be both helpful and welcome.

Persons: ”, Nate Cohn’s, we’ve, Kevin Quealy, John Branch, John, Patrick Thomas, tut, Trump, pollsters, Obamacare, Leif Parsons, We’re, Jason Henry, Tony Luong, Jordan, ‘, Ruth Fremson, Laurel, ’ Rodrigo Corral, Alex Welsh, Paul Romer, Tim Enthoven, Barack Obama, epidemiologists, It’s, you’re, WordleBot Eden, Wordle, Lila Barth, McCabe, Tom Brady, ChatGPT, —, Erin Schaff Organizations: New York Times, Facebook, Yankees, Red, State Newspaper, ESPN, The Athletic, The Times, You’re, Voters, Trump, Mr, Times, Siena College, Walmart, The New York Times, Jordan Siemens, Health, New, Nike, Democratic, Twitter, America, Iowa, Iowa Democratic, Cancer, Hit, Biden, Insurance, Roe America, Disorders, Republican, Republican Party of, U.S, Budget, NASA, National, Traffic, Administration, Yorkers, Force Locations: It’s, Red Sox, State, America, Dakota, Ireland, Chipotle, Japan, U.S, United States, Siena, New Pennsylvania, District, Iowa, Covid, York City, New York, Pennsylvania, Roe, Tonga, Arizona, York, Holland

☆ Chaat Party Has Entered the Party Chat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Sam Sifton | More About Sam Sifton | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Good morning. This took a lot of gas, a lot of time and a toll on our bodies. So we laughed hard when the only good fishing we had came at the very end of the day, a few boat lengths from the marina, across from Four Sparrow Marsh near Mill Basin, Brooklyn. For dinner that night, and for you this evening: a chaat party, essentially a no-recipe recipe that Priya Krishna adapted from one in the 2020 cookbook “Chaat,” by Maneet Chauhan and Jody Eddy. It also served as a kind of rehearsal for the celebration of Diwali, the Hindu celebration of lights, on Nov. 12.

Persons: Sandy Hook, Priya Krishna, Maneet Chauhan, Jody Eddy, Naz Deravian’s, gulab jamun, Christina Morales’s Organizations: Midland, Cabanas, New York Times Locations: Lower, Midland Beach, Staten, New Jersey, Queens, Jamaica, Mill Basin , Brooklyn

☆ Companies won't hire these women to drive trucks because of their gender, a new lawsuit says.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Sebastian Cahill | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A new lawsuit accuses one of the US's largest trucking companies of gender discrimination. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn a new class action lawsuit, three named women allege that a trucking company either delayed their hiring processes or refused to hire them altogether because of their gender. Per the filing, other women applying were told there was a hiring freeze for women. Romer-Friedman added filing with the EEOC is the first step in a process that could lead to a federal civil rights lawsuit against Stevens Transport. Stevens Transport did not respond to a request for comment from Insider sent outside regular working hours.

Persons: —, Kim Howard, Ashli Streeter, Peter Romer, Stevens, Howard, Streeter, Friedman, Romer, I've Organizations: Service, Stevens Transport, Trucking, Commission, Romer, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Friedman's, America

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ AI-Driven Cataclysm Could Rock the Job Market: Top Economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Aki Ito | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +33 min

Over the course of three conversations this summer, Acemoglu told me he's worried we're currently hurtling down a road that will end in catastrophe. "There's a fair likelihood that if we don't do a course correction, we're going to have a truly two-tier system," Acemoglu told me. "I was following the canon of economic models, and in all of these models, technological change is the main mover of GDP per capita and wages," Acemoglu told me. In later empirical work, Acemoglu and Restrepo showed that that was exactly what had happened. "I realize this is a very, very tall order," Acemoglu told me.

Persons: who's, Katya Klinova, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Acemoglu, Johnson, we've, he's, we're, Power, James Robinson, —, Robinson, David Autor, Pascual Restrepo, Restrepo, John Maynard Keynes, Simon Simard, Lord Byron, Eric Van Den Brulle, hasn't, it's, Gita Gopinath, Paul Romer, Romer, What's, Daron, GPT, Asu Ozdaglar, It's, Mark Madeo, Tattong, Erik Brynjolfsson, Brynjolfsson, There's, Yoshua Bengio, Yuval Noah Harari, Andrew Yang, Elon Musk, I've, That's, Aki Ito Organizations: Getty, MIT, of Technology, Hulton, London School of Economics, Stagecoach, Technology, —, International Monetary Fund, Microsoft, Asu, Companies, Computer, Greenpeace, Communications, Big Tech, Workers Locations: Silicon Valley, America, Boston, Istanbul, Turkey, Acemoglu, England, United States, Britain, Australia

☆ '4chan for economists' is melting down as racist, sexist anonymous posts are linked to Harvard, Yale, and other top institutions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Kate Taylor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

A new study links anonymous posts on "4chan for economists" to IP addresses at Harvard, Yale, and other top schools. Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Notre Dame IP addresses made up 3.4% of posts from a research-institution IP address. According to Ederer, it took just 15 minutes to figure out how to connect usernames with IP addresses.

Persons: Anya Samek, Samek, EJMR, Boston University's Florian Ederer, Yale's Paul Goldsmith, Pinkham, Kyle Jensen, Ederer, Christina Romer, Scott Cunningham, Rob Seamans, Merkel, bubba, Trevon Logan, that's, She's Organizations: Harvard, Yale, North American Economic Science Association Conference, University of Chicago, undergrad, National Bureau of Economic Research, American Economics Association, Baylor, Marvel, Stanford, University of Notre Dame, Columbia, Notre Dame, Ohio State University, UMass Amherst, University of California Locations: Tucson , Arizona, Cambridge , Massachusetts, Ederer, Erdogan's Turkey, troon, Samek, San Diego

☆ Opinion | The ‘Representative Agent’ Is Always Rational. The Rest of Us Are Not.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists have an imaginary person they call a “representative agent,” who is about as realistic as the Easter bunny or the Abominable Snowman. The representative agent is supposed to stand in for all of us in a model of how the economy works: 335 million Americans, for example, boiled down to one. As originally conceived, the representative agent is fully rational and unemotional, forward-looking and with perfect information about all the relevant facts. “It is clear that the ‘representative’ agent deserves a decent burial,” Alan Kirman, then of European University Institute in Florence, Italy, wrote in The Journal of Economic Perspectives in 1992. Paul Romer, then of New York University, indicted the representative agent among other culprits in 2016 in a scathing critique that began, “For more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backward.”

Persons: ”, ” Alan Kirman, Paul Romer Organizations: European University Institute, New York University Locations: Florence, Italy

☆ This common two-word phrase is the 'worst thing' a parent can tell a child, says education expert
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Ashton Jackson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Every small child gets anxious sometimes. But when your kid is panicking, there's a common two-word phrase you should never utter: Calm down. That's according to Rachel Romer, CEO and co-founder of education assistance benefits company Guild, who's a mom to two children. Saying "calm down" doesn't validate the child's emotions or help them understand their feelings, and can even unintentionally come across as dismissive, they said. The trio recommended two exercises to help children better manage their heightened emotions.

Persons: Rachel Romer, who's, Romer, Brené Brown, Adam Grant, Brown, Grant, Alison Wood Brooks, doesn't Organizations: Wharton

☆ Facebook faces new allegations of gender discrimination in its delivery of job ads. Research by human rights group suggests it's a global concern
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Clare Duffy | Carlotta Dotto | Naomi Hirst | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +18 min

But Global Witness' research suggests that this results in job ads being targeted to users based on gender stereotypes. And in some cases, human rights advocates say, the biases that appear to be shown by Facebook's ad system may exacerbate other disparities. Global Witness targeted the ads to adult Facebook users of any gender who resided in, or had recently visited, the chosen countries. Certain roles were less strongly skewed — a package delivery job ad, for example, was shown to 38% women users in the Netherlands. In December, Real Women in Trucking filed its EEOC complaint alleging that Facebook's job ads algorithm discriminates based on age and gender.

Persons: Naomi Hirst, Clara Wichmann, Ashley Settle, Settle, Meta, Linde, Ireland —, Caroline Leroy, Blanvillain, Fondation des Femme, Pat de Brún, de Brún, —, Brún, Facebook, Sheryl Sandberg, Sandberg, Peter Romer, Friedman, " Romer, Facebook's, Hirst, Meera Senthilingam, Seth Fiegerman, Carlotta Dotto, Carolina Moscoso, Tal Yellin, Damian Prado, David Blood, Gabrielle Smith Organizations: CNN, Facebook, Global, Facebook's, des, UK, Human Rights, Commissioner's, Meta, US, Employment, Commission, Real Women, Trucking, Ad, Ireland, Fondation des, Amnesty, Employment Opportunity Commission, University of Southern, Real, Data Locations: Europe, France, Netherlands, Canada, United States, India, South Africa, United Kingdom, Indonesia, University of Southern California

☆ Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a 'Soft Landing'? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +22 min

Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.

☆ End of Title 42 immigration policy has brought fewer migrants than expected, but overcrowding concerns remain
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Nouran Salahieh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

David Peinado Romero/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Migrants carry a baby in a suitcase across the Rio Grande on May 10. Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images Migrants wait to get paid after washing cars at a gas station in Brownsville on May 10. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images Migrants surrender to US Border Patrol agents after crossing the border in Yuma on May 10. Paul Ratje/Reuters Migrants wait to be processed by US Border Patrol agents in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, on April 26. Hudak warned in the filing that without measures to conditionally release some migrants, Border Patrol could have over 45,000 migrants in custody by the end of the month.

☆ Changes are coming to some mortgage fees next month
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Broadly, the fees will go down for many with lower credit scores and will increase for many with higher credit scores. But that doesn’t mean people with lower credit scores will pay less than those with higher credit scores. The changes mean that people with higher credit scores will still pay less based on lower risk to the lenders, but having a lower credit score will now come with less of a penalty. For those with higher credit scores, more price tiers have been put in place, which in some cases may increases fees. The difference in assessed fees is about $4,000 more for a buyer with a 640 credit score than for a buyer with a 740 credit score, based on a $300,000 mortgage.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

"Because of the lags involved, policymakers are going to face a very difficult decision about when to stop rate increases or reverse course," Romer said in a keynote address to the American Economic Association's annual meeting in New Orleans. Minutes of the most recent Fed policy meeting in December showed central bankers struggling with the risks, while economists see a high probability that the rate increases will lead to a U.S. recession in the coming year. She collaborated with Berkeley economist David Romer, her husband, to mine Fed meeting transcripts and minutes dating back to the 1940s for the review of U.S. central bank policy. Isolating the shocks, she said, allows a clearer view of how Fed rate increases influence economic output and employment, and over what time frame. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Meta on Thursday said it was reviewing the complaint and did not provide immediate comment on it or the status of the planned changes. Real Women in Trucking's complaint lists about 80 ads from Meta's public archive that show skewed audiences. "There’s no reason that job ads should be sent to a fraction of those numbers on a routine basis," he said. But the charge cites three ads for which Meta let advertisers select age-restricted audiences, an option it promised to block for job ads in 2019. If Meta is struggling to identify job ads, it may likewise face difficulties applying the planned variance reductions, Romer-Friedman said.

The new allegations underscore the issues that Meta's planned system would counter. "Addressing fairness in ads is an industry-wide challenge and we’ve been collaborating with civil rights groups, academics and regulators to advance fairness in our ads system," the company said. "There’s no reason that job ads should be sent to a fraction of those numbers on a routine basis," he said. But the charge cites three ads for which Meta let advertisers select age-restricted audiences, an option it promised to block for job ads in 2019. If Meta is struggling to identify job ads, it may likewise face difficulties applying the planned variance reductions, Romer-Friedman said.

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